Depends if events are independent or not. If they are - just square the probabilty - but often one failure may trigger another. They may not be closely interlinked, but often there is some linkage - for example if fuel has to be moved from one side to the other - etc. I don't know how any analysis of non-independent events is done. Another linking might simply be via the environment - flying a plane on just one engine may impose a higher load on the remaining engine, thus increasing the probability that it fails. I think the ETOPS rules require some duplication of parts which might contribute to one or other engine failing - for example fuel pumps, but there's probably more to it than that.





Originally Posted by Macca

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