should children be returning to full time education in a pandemic?

[struth]

Yeah, to an extent, although there's still many more left that the virus could potentially kill, which is why we have to learn from the mistakes made before in not adequately isolating and protecting the most vulnerable of our citizens. We simply can't have the disaster that happened in care homes earlier this year repeating itself again.

No, I think the point I made with mass-cleansing/sanitation is valid. Quite simply, if you're grossly reducing the spread of germs like that, in all public areas on a national level, which has been the case for the last 6 months or so, and continuing to do that, including promoting the wearing of masks, then it's going to have an impact on the spread of germ-related infections, colds and flus included.

Therefore, I'm expecting to see a reduction in that this winter, compared with normal, which will only help us deal better with a 'second wave' of Covid, and so contrary to the doom and gloom 'panic merchants' worrying about half the population being ill or dying in hospitals this winter, I'm confident it will be a non-event; certainly nothing of major concern.

Marco.

sure i said that.. both will help enormously i think. but just because older at risk folk are very wary doesnt make them frightened or cowed. it is just most older folk have a better ability to be lonely as they are more used to it, and dont see the point in risking all without good c ause.
like yesterday my daughter had to rush one of the kids up to hospital for tests so i offered to go to her house and look after the other, even tho there was a risk as they have all been down with some virus.. calculated needs over just doing something to satisfy a need

[Sherwood]

Reference has been made to R0 the epidemiological variable used in pandemic modelling. Although R0 is an average value for the number of people an infected person subsequently infects, it is useful in modelling transmission. Consider this highly simplified illustration. Best knowledge is that incubation once infected takes around 5 days, and that an infected person may be infectious for around 6 days. Even if we assume (optimistically) a period of 2 weeks between infection cycles, that still allows for 26 infection cycles in a single year. Current estimates for England put R0 at around unity, maybe a little more. I am not sure that many appreciate the consequences of a small rise in R0 from say 1.1 to 1.2. Do the maths based upon 26 cycles for the two values (i.e. R0 ^26). Shocking isn't it.

Of course, spikes in infection will prompt harsher lockdown measures, thereby bringing R0 down. However, even 4 cycles at R0 =1.2 means a doubling of infections.

[struth]

Reference has been made to R0 the epidemiological variable used in pandemic modelling. Although R0 is an average value for the number of people an infected person subsequently infects, it is useful in modelling transmission. Consider this highly simplified illustration. Best knowledge is that incubation once infected takes around 5 days, and that an infected person may be infectious for around 6 days. Even if we assume (optimistically) a period of 2 weeks between infection cycles, that still allows for 26 infection cycles in a single year. Current estimates for England put R0 at around unity, maybe a little more. I am not sure that many appreciate the consequences of a small rise in R0 from say 1.1 to 1.2. Do the maths based upon 26 cycles for the two values (i.e. R0 ^26). Shocking isn't it.

Of course, spikes in infection will prompt harsher lockdown measures, thereby bringing R0 down. However, even 4 cycles at R0 =1.2 means a doubling of infections.

true but its not so relevant at the low rates we have at moment as the clusters are being found and dealt with as best they currently can. also as testing is much higher, and false pos are aplenty, we will find more cases. as said earlier, hospital admissions are steady and low. if the rates go up too high then that may become an issue again.

[Marco]

indeed but you aint the parent; more the outside teacher.. the james mason piano teacher type.. once that wears off.... and as a parent it will unless your a bit of a monster to them

The problem is, we've had decades now where ridiculous levels of 'mamby-pambying' has become the norm, in terms of how many 'parents' today bring up their kids, instead of sometimes introducing much needed 'tough love', and so to break that cycle, and introduce reasonable measures of discipline, and make that acceptable in today's soft-assed, politically correct-obsessed world, would be very difficult to nigh on impossible.

Marco.

[Sherwood]

It gives me no pleasure to say it but R0 will almost certainly climb in the coming months, and perhaps catastrophically so if we see a large scale return to school and any relaxation of containment efforts.

[Marco]

Geoff, have you always been a glass half-empty kind of guy?

Marco.

[Macca]

indeed but you aint the parent; more the outside teacher.. the james mason piano teacher type.. once that wears off.... and as a parent it will unless your a bit of a monster to them

yes, much easier to do it if you are not the parent, unless you establish some 'distance' right from the start by not indulging the child. This is now seen as 'bad parenting' when in fact it does the child no favours. IMO it is easy to spot the difference in adults, those that were 'befriended' by their parents turn out immature and self-entitled.

The line between adult and child gets blurred. When my brothers and I were young people would come to see my parents, aunties, uncles, friends, they would sit and chat, we would never disturb them. We had no interest in disturbing them, there was nothing there for us. We entertained ourselves. Now if I go to my brothers we can't get 5 minutes to have a chat without the children bugging us, demanding attention. Just completely wrong.

Personally I don't really like children which is why I never had any. They seem to be either dim and annoying or precocious and annoying. I'm very much from the 'seen and not heard' school, me.

[Sherwood]

Geoff, have you always been a glass half-empty kind of guy?

Marco.

Donald Trump has spent much of this year denying the severity of the pandemic and refusing to take a strong leadership role in its containment. Hoping for a good outcome and taking no action to promote one is not helpful it is irresponsible. Actions should be based on evidence informed policy and practice. I have spent my adult life as an economist working in international health. I am always optimistic about outcomes when decisions are based upon evidence and science. I am therefore "a glass is 50% full" type of guy! Warning that poor decisions will lead to poor outcomes is not pessimism it is common sense. Unfortunately, having studied epidemiology I am all too aware of the mechanics of the pandemic. I hope I am wrong but we shall see where we are by spring of next year.

[struth]

donny needs to win or he will be behind bars...so win he will, by hook and crook.

[Sherwood]

donny needs to win or he will be behind bars...so win he will, by hook and crook.

He is certainly prepared to stoop to the lowest and most underhand acts. However, if verified, his alleged comments about war dead and military service may even persuade his "base" to jump ship!

I am praying that the American public will kick his arse out of the White House in November so that an independent judicial enquiry can finally discover what shit Russia has on him!