should children be returning to full time education in a pandemic?

[Sherwood]

No. Until a safe and effective vaccine is produced and is widely adopted, or more effective therapeutics developed, the challenge is to contain the epidemic. There is ample evidence globally that when students return to school or uni without effective preventative measures that a spike in infection occurs soon after. The UK has had one of the poorest global responses to the pandemic but it has managed to "flatten the curve" somewhat. Despite this, we remain in a highly precarious position and it is entirely possible that we could see a return to previous infection levels or higher. We will shortly see the annual increase in morbidity due to flu, pneumonia and other respiratory infections, which stacked upon covid infections will present an unprecedented and overwhelming winter burden on the NHS.

Whilst there are costs and consequences in keeping children from school, the alternative is far more hazardous. Distance learning is not ideal but it is workable. Furthermore, there is no reason why kids or adults should not leave their homes providing that they socially distance and wear masks when in close proximity to other people. I still cannot understand why the public have not yet fully grasped the potential for huge mortality and long term chronic illness that covid presents. Even if it meant that all schoolchildren lost a full year of schooling (a highly unlikely and unnecessary possibility) that would be a modest price to pay for the potential health gains.

[struth]

No doubt there is paranoia about catching said virus. I'm not immune to it.
A lot of kids have started to show signs of mental stress so they need to return. In fact they have been back up here for a while. As has college. Uni s are about to start.
Tbh I can manage in house better now than in first months and psychologically I'm managing OK considering.
The economy does need to continue tho or we will all be in worse condition than just a virus.
As it stands the country will be paying this off for 20 years

[Sherwood]

No doubt there is paranoia about catching said virus. I'm not immune to it.
A lot of kids have started to show signs of mental stress so they need to return. In fact they have been back up here for a while. As has college. Uni s are about to start.
Tbh I can manage in house better now than in first months and psychologically I'm managing OK considering.
The economy does need to continue tho or we will all be in worse condition than just a virus.
As it stands the country will be paying this off for 20 years

It's not paranoia. It is a highly infectious virus with a relatively high case fatality rate. Also, as we are gradually learning, the disease may be responsible for a plethora of long term chronic morbidity too.

Yes, it is important that kids go back to school, but only when it is safe to do so. Now is not the time.

The full economic costs of the virus are not yet known but will be immense. Many members of this forum are retired or approaching retirement so they will not be paying off the accumulated debt that successive governments have built up over decades and which covid has greatly added to. That will fall to the so called "millenials" and their offspring. The phrase, "the new normal" is widely used but I doubt if many of us appreciate how radically that this pandemic and the ones that will follow, must change the fundamentals of society and the way we live. Frankly, a delayed return to school is to my mind the least of our concerns.

[dave2010]

It makes sense for kids to go to school as long as cases are at a low level - which perhaps they now are. There are various estimates of the R value - between 0.9 and 1.1 in England has been declared, but Sturgeon has said that it's above 1 in Scotland - with an upper limit perhaps of 1.4. If hot spots can be noticed in time, and action taken quickly, then it's probably OK to send the school kids back.

The obvious danger is that the kids will spread it to parents, and thence to more elderly relatives. Some kids go on public transport to schools - so may spread the virus further - but that might only be a problem if the transport is shared with other members of the public.

Some of the economic "damage" might make sense anyway. Parts of the economy have been running at ludicrously high levels - overcrowded roads, trains, and airports. Yes - we don't want a complete collapse of all activities, but some could very reasonably be cut back a lot. Now people have discovered that they can actually work at home at least part of the time - why shouldn't that become a new model? Even if commuting round London were reduced to 50% of what it was before, there would still be full trains and roads, though they could operate more effectively.

The economic concerns are that if activity drops too far, then systems won't be maintained, and will become completely unviable, both operationally and regarding economic viability. OTOH I find the notion that people have to go to work so that sandwich bars can open completely bonkers. There will be some fallout re employment, but people can adapt, and find new opportunities.

The virus has probably modified, and may currently be less virulent than before, though that doesn't mean it couldn't still be a very significant threat, and could become modified further and somewhat less benign. Care and vigilance is still needed.

[Macca]

The UK has had one of the poorest global responses to the pandemic but it has managed to "flatten the curve" somewhat.

In Europe maybe (and once population density is taken into account we have arguably done better than Italy, France and Spain), but certainly not globally. What are they doing for containment in Indian subcontinent, Africa, South America? Absolutely nothing, because they can't. They don't have the money or the infrastructure. They are pursuing herd immunity by default.

Given that those locations account for more than half the world's population it strikes me as naïve to think that western countries can somehow remain islands of isolation in the long-term regardless of how draconian their infection-prevention measures are.

Also measures in the UK did not 'flatten the curve somewhat', they flattened it massively.

As Sir Humphrey points out in 'Yes Minister', the primary purpose of school is not education, but to give parents somewhere to put their children whilst they go out to work. Only a minority of workers can do their job from home. All other workers with children need the daycare that schools provide so they can get out and earn a living.

[Filterlab]

What pandemic?

Precisely.

Worldwide deaths (allegedly*) from COVID-19 (total so far): 879,028 (according to today's figures)

Worldwide deaths from stroke/heart disease (2016): 15,200,000

Worldwide deaths from Pneumonia (2017): 2,560,000

Worldwide deaths due to road traffic accidents (2018): 1,350,000



Yet nobody says a thing about Pneumonia year on year on year. Nobody is banning everyone from vehicles. Strange times. COVID is merely a drop in the ocean of annual causes of death, even Tuberculosis still kills almost 2 million a year!

Get the kids back to school I say!


*I say allegedly, first hand experience: My CEO's girlfriend took her mum to hospital with breathing problems. They tested her four times for COVID and Sars-2. Negative every time. She passed away. Cause of death on her cert? COVID.

[Macca]

I have had a few conversations with people who are working from home and have children. In all cases they have complained that the children are bored and getting on their nerves and preventing them from working. I've asked them what they have done to educate their children at home (aside from the small amount of work remotely assigned by the school). In all cases the answer has been 'nothing'.

That amazes me. No wonder the children are bored. I suggested that maybe they could do something simple like assign the child a book to read and then for them to write a thousand word essay about the book. That keeps the child busy and requires none or minimal interaction with the parent, allowing them to get on with their job.

The suggestion has been met with astonishment and incredulity. One parent advised me that this was impossible for them since they didn't have any books in the house!

[walpurgis]

One parent advised me that this was impossible for them since they didn't have any books in the house!

For me, that's hard to comprehend, apart from the traditional illiterate oiks, you'd expect every home of reasonably intelligent people to be brimming with books (mine is). I suspect it's probably more common these days, with folk relying more on electronic devices to occupy themselves.

[Lawrence001]

As the parent of 4 and 8 year olds I can tell you that setting them something to do at the start of the day is not an option, it could work for (well behaved) teenagers though.

My children needed someone with them constantly unless you gave them screens to play on. (That was our strategy at the start and behaviour levels collapsed to unbearable within days.)

Also, parents are not qualified teachers so as well as the mental health aspect, a year of reduced education has a massive impact on their intellectual progression at that age, as does not mixing with other children to their ability to socialise well.

The fact is that if you want to keep schools shut you have to accept that parents of children under the age of about 14 will only be able to do minimal work (assuming they can do their jobs from home at all) which risks the economy. This is the trade off that the government is dealing with.

Sent from my HRY-LX1 using Tapatalk

[struth]

Precisely.

Worldwide deaths (allegedly*) from COVID-19 (total so far): 879,028 (according to today's figures)

Worldwide deaths from stroke/heart disease (2016): 15,200,000

Worldwide deaths from Pneumonia (2017): 2,560,000

Worldwide deaths due to road traffic accidents (2018): 1,350,000



Yet nobody says a thing about Pneumonia year on year on year. Nobody is banning everyone from vehicles. Strange times. COVID is merely a drop in the ocean of annual causes of death, even Tuberculosis still kills almost 2 million a year!

Get the kids back to school I say!


*I say allegedly, first hand experience: My CEO's girlfriend took her mum to hospital with breathing problems. They tested her four times for COVID and Sars-2. Negative every time. She passed away. Cause of death on her cert? COVID.

western developed countries especially where they have large concentrated pops, only got away with such a low rate because of the shutdown tho(or thats the consensus).. now we have some semblence of orginisation, it makes more sense to try and meet it half way.