Johns Hopkins Medical Centre - World Coronavirus infection Map by Country.

[Marco]

My cousin's daughter Alex airs her concerns about going back to uni (1:18 & 10:31). Don't know how she got to be such a smart cookie, that gene obviously skipped our generation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...ies-2-16092020

Nice one, Roy. Family must be proud

Marco.

[Roy S]

Nice one, Roy. Family must be proud

Marco.

Thanks, she's a credit to her Mum & Dad as is her twin sister who's training to be a nurse.

[dave2010]

So how many of you have actually watched the video Martin posted, and if so, what did you think of the evidence presented?

I watched it. It seems very credible.

However, do we really all now want to resume the crazy ways of life some of us had before - even if the video turns out to be largely true?

For examples - pointless commuting each day into offices.
Too much road traffic. Too much air traffic.

One problem with most factors is that mostly they are not binary choices - all or nothing. Some road and air traffic is probably desirable - enables us to go out and do things we want to do. When that gets to high levels though, it becomes counter productive, and much less pleasant - and also impacts on others.

I have lived in places where there was significant noise from aircraft - it was unpleasant. Yet apart from our own personal desires to see the world, the airline companies, and the plane makers, and many of the people who have jobs in the travel industry - all have vested interests in keeping levels of flying high - nay increasing. How do we get to sweet spots where most people are satisfied?

This kind of issue is common in so many aspects of life.

Even if Covid 19 was fake - and I'm not sure that it was - that is no reason to blindly go back to the way things were before.

[anthonyTD]

Some good points there Dave,
Air travel is a very real problem, eg, the ability to jump on a plane and go to another country thousands of miles away cheaper than a return ticket from wales to london is IMO just wrong!
We have to do a better job of looking after this world, or one day it realy will bite us on the Arse for sure...

I watched it. It seems very credible.

However, do we really all now want to resume the crazy ways of life some of us had before - even if the video turns out to be largely true?

For examples - pointless commuting each day into offices.
Too much road traffic. Too much air traffic.

One problem with most factors is that mostly they are not binary choices - all or nothing. Some road and air traffic is probably desirable - enables us to go out and do things we want to do. When that gets to high levels though, it becomes counter productive, and much less pleasant - and also impacts on others.

I have lived in places where there was significant noise from aircraft - it was unpleasant. Yet apart from our own personal desires to see the world, the airline companies, and the plane makers, and many of the people who have jobs in the travel industry - all have vested interests in keeping levels of flying high - nay increasing. How do we get to sweet spots where most people are satisfied?

This kind of issue is common in so many aspects of life.

Even if Covid 19 was fake - and I'm not sure that it was - that is no reason to blindly go back to the way things were before.

[dave2010]

Some good points there Dave,
Air travel is a very real problem, eg, the ability to jump on a plane and go to another country thousands of miles away cheaper than a return ticket from wales to london is IMO just wrong!
We have to do a better job of looking after this world, or one day it realy will bite us on the Arse for sure...

Arguably even in the UK ... it's often cheaper for me to fly from the local airport to see my friends in London, than to drive or take the train. That's only about 500 miles by air or maybe 600 by road. Planes will, of course fly further if they circle airports to get a landing slot, which happens quite a lot. It takes about 5 hours all in - versus more than 10 hours by surface transport.

[Mikeandvan]

Whether cases are up as a result of more testing or not is not so much of a concern. Fact is that deaths are way down from the high point back in May/June, this is such a relief, hopefully it will stay this way, and this disease will just fade away or become something we are not so alarmed by such as flu. Lets hope the Chinese aren't cooking up a new batch of something hideous............

[dave2010]

I watched it. It seems very credible.

I am concerned that one of our commentators seems to have walked away from the discussion (Sherwood - Geoff - last post noted 4039). Not also helped by comments from Marco about "behaving like a girl" - not exactly PC comments these days. Geoff makes the point that the video which appears to downplay the way Covid 19 is spreading is "merely" a curve fitting exercise and is based on ideas which have little predictive power. Geoff also made reference to IHME and work there, but it would be useful to have links to the latest views from that organisation. It is indeed the case that some modelling approaches can fit data very well, but have very limited generalisation power, so are effectively poor for prediction. Trying to differentatiate between models/theories which fit current data and also have significant predictive capabilities requires more work.There was also mention of a rise in patients on ventilators - which is a slightly worrying and unwanted trend.

Although the video mentioned seems credible, it could be a mistake to assume that it tells the whole story, or replaces other views presented by public health officials.

[Marco]

To be fair, Dave, Geoff said that he was leaving the discussion before I made that remark.

It was of course tongue-in-cheek, but I stand by everything else I said about folk posting stuff (whatever it may be) and then saying 'This is my last post'. There is no need to announce that. It's childish, and simply smacks of attention seeking (stropping off because you don't like what's being said), which if true, I have no time for.

If someone no longer wishes to contribute to a discussion, then there is no need to announce it; just simply stop contributing to said discussion. Simples

Anyway, I'll get to your earlier post after breakfast, as like Anthony said, you've made a few good points

Marco.

[Macca]

I am concerned that one of our commentators seems to have walked away from the discussion (Sherwood - Geoff - last post noted 4039). Not also helped by comments from Marco about "behaving like a girl" - not exactly PC comments these days. Geoff makes the point that the video which appears to downplay the way Covid 19 is spreading is "merely" a curve fitting exercise and is based on ideas which have little predictive power. Geoff also made reference to IHME and work there, but it would be useful to have links to the latest views from that organisation. It is indeed the case that some modelling approaches can fit data very well, but have very limited generalisation power, so are effectively poor for prediction. Trying to differentatiate between models/theories which fit current data and also have significant predictive capabilities requires more work.There was also mention of a rise in patients on ventilators - which is a slightly worrying and unwanted trend.

Although the video mentioned seems credible, it could be a mistake to assume that it tells the whole story, or replaces other views presented by public health officials.

I would have been happy for Geoff to make a proper critique of the video, if it is wrong then let's hear why. I'm happy to learn. But his criticism was nothing more than an appeal to authority, and that carries no weight.

Even if we disregard most of what is said in the presentation the comparison of the overall death rates in the European countries of previous years to this year, showing that overall there is no appreciable change in the number of deaths surely needs addressing? We have been sold on the idea that the death rate from C=19 is unprecedented and this does not seem to be true.

[Macca]

I watched it. It seems very credible.

However, do we really all now want to resume the crazy ways of life some of us had before - even if the video turns out to be largely true?

For examples - pointless commuting each day into offices.
Too much road traffic. Too much air traffic.

.

At the company I work for, at least in the department I work for, they have found that absenteeism is down and productivity is up. Consequently they are seriously considering continuing home working, possibly 5 days a week and almost certainly for 3 days a week with the staff on rotation into a much smaller office. If you consider that not renting an office is saving the company a couple of hundred grand a year it would be an odd decision to return to normal completely.

The most impressive difference with lockdown was the increase in air quality. Will depend on where you live but where I am air quality is generally poor and very poor in the spring and summer. The difference with a 90% reduction in road traffic bordered on the unbelievable. It would be fantastic if there was some way we could have that back without impact on the economy.