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Thread: Johns Hopkins Medical Centre - World Coronavirus infection Map by Country.

  1. #3991
    Join Date: Jan 2008

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    I'm AudioAl'sArbiterForPISHANTO.

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    Sure, but my point was that why wasn't there this level of panic over Swine Flu, which was arguably as serious, or more so? What's different THIS time with CV-19, in terms of it warranting the creation of more panic than was afforded to Swine Flu?

    Marco.
    Main System

    Turntable: Heavily-modified Technics SL-1210MK5G [Mike New bearing/ETP platter/Paul Hynes SR7 PSU & reg mods]. Funk Firm APM Achromat/Nagaoka GL-601 Crystal Record Weight/Isonoe feet & boots/Ortofon RS-212D/Denon DL-103GL in Denon PCL-300 headshell with Funk Firm Houdini/Kondo SL-115 pure-silver cartridge leads.

    Paul Hynes MC head amp/SR5 PSU. Also modded Lentek head amp/Denon AU-310 SUT.

    Other Cartridges: Nippon Columbia (NOS 1987) Denon DL-103. USA-made Shure SC35C with NOS stylus. Goldring G820 with NOS stylus. Shure M55E with NOS stylus.

    CD Player: Audiocom-modified Sony X-777ES/DAS-R1 DAC.

    Tape Deck: Tandberg TCD 310, fully restored and recalibrated as new, by RDE, plus upgraded with heads from the TCD-420a. Also with matching TM4 Norway microphones.

    Preamps: Heavily-modified Croft Charisma-X. LDR Stereo Coffee. Power Amps: Tube Distinctions Copper Amp fitted with Tungsol KT-150s. Quad 306.

    Cables & Sundries: Mark Grant HDX1 interconnects and digital coaxial cable, plus Mark Grant 6mm UP-LCOFC Van Damme speaker cable. MCRU 'Ultimate' mains leads. Lehmann clone headphone amp with vintage Koss PRO-4AAA headphones.

    Tube Distinctions digital noise filter. VPI HW16.5 record cleaning machine.

    Speakers: Tannoy 15MGs in Lockwood cabinets with modified crossovers. 1967 Celestion Ditton 15.


    Protect your HUMAN RIGHTS and REFUSE ANY *MANDATORY* VACCINE FOR COVID-19!

    Also **SAY NO** to unjust 'vaccine passports' or certificates, which are totally incompatible with a FREE society!!!


  2. #3992
    Join Date: May 2016

    Location: Notts

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    I'm Geoff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    Not in public, no. But if they had another solution I'd imagine that they might mention that. So far, nothing. What are your grounds for stating that herd immunity is not an effective strategy?
    We do not consider herd immunity as an effective strategy for influenza because the virus mutates each year and previously infected persons can be and are reinfected. That is why we have a new flu shot each year tailored to the new strain. There can be no herd immunity in this case. We do not know if the same applies to Covid 19, but it is a strong possibility. As to a vaccine, it could take years to immunise everyone, especially if two doses are required. If the vaccine mutates, it will be like painting the Forth Bridge.

  3. #3993
    Join Date: Aug 2009

    Location: Staffordshire, England

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    I'm Martin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    Sure, but my point was that why wasn't there this level of panic over Swine Flu, which was arguably as serious, or more so? What's different THIS time with CV-19, in terms of it warranting the creation of more panic than was afforded to Swine Flu?

    Marco.
    More contagious and with more powerful effect on the health of the individual. It is more serious than swine flu.
    Current Lash Up:

    TEAC VRDS 701T > Sony TAE1000ESD > Krell KSA50S > JM Labs Focal Electra 926.

  4. #3994
    Join Date: Aug 2009

    Location: Staffordshire, England

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    I'm Martin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherwood View Post
    We do not consider herd immunity as an effective strategy for influenza because the virus mutates each year and previously infected persons can be and are reinfected. That is why we have a new flu shot each year tailored to the new strain. There can be no herd immunity in this case. We do not know if the same applies to Covid 19, but it is a strong possibility. As to a vaccine, it could take years to immunise everyone, especially if two doses are required. If the vaccine mutates, it will be like painting the Forth Bridge.
    I agree that if the virus mutates herd immunity cannot happen. But so far little or no evidence for that. Also if the virus mutates it can mutate into a form less powerful and less contagious. There was no vaccine for Spanish Flu yet it eventually petered out, likely due to a combination of it mutating to a less powerful strain and herd immunity being reached.

    Partial immunity is also possible, that is you could be re-infected with the new strain but as you have antibodies from the old strain that can help reduce the effect it has on you.

    Let's assume that mutation means herd immunity is impossible and that attempts to find a successful vaccine fail. What's the solution then? Lockdown forever resulting in economic collapse? Just a couple of months of lockdown reduced the UK economy by 25%. Permanent lockdown would lead to complete collapse, starvation, anarchy, basically the end of everything.

    Maybe herd immunity will not work, but since it is currently the only game in town I don't understand why there is any opposition to pursuing it.
    Current Lash Up:

    TEAC VRDS 701T > Sony TAE1000ESD > Krell KSA50S > JM Labs Focal Electra 926.

  5. #3995
    Join Date: Nov 2011

    Location: Seaton, Devon, UK

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    I'm Adrian.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherwood View Post
    We do not consider herd immunity as an effective strategy for influenza because the virus mutates each year and previously infected persons can be and are reinfected. That is why we have a new flu shot each year tailored to the new strain. There can be no herd immunity in this case. We do not know if the same applies to Covid 19, but it is a strong possibility. As to a vaccine, it could take years to immunise everyone, especially if two doses are required. If the vaccine mutates, it will be like painting the Forth Bridge.
    Spot on Geoff.

    The other aspect lots seem to choose to ignore is that coronavirus in several forms is what we call a ‘Common Cold’ and all its variants, fevers, sore throats, respiratory inflammation etc, the human race has failed for at least 100 years trying to find a cure for “the Common Cold”. Covid or to give its full name is - severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which denotes the genetic relationship to SARS(2003), the 19 I believe indicates the year it was first recognised. It is generally accepted in scientific circles it is naturally occurring and has been identified as coming from bats.

    “ Between 24 December 2019 and 17 January 2020, Forster explains, just three out of 23 cases in Wuhan were type A, while the rest were type B. In patients in Guangdong province, however, five out of nine were found to have type A of the virus.” see https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ab-coronavirus an interesting article!

    So are we likely to get long term stable vaccines or treatments, I will leave that up to everyone else to consider and conclude for themselves
    Listening is the act of aural discrimination and dissemination of sound, and accepting you get it wrong sometimes.

    Analog Inputs: Pro-Ject Signature 10 TT & arm, Benz Micro LP-S, Michel Cusis MC, Goldring 2500 and Ortofon Rondo Blue cartridges, Hitachi FT5500 mk2 Tuner

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    I think I am nearing audio nirvana, but don’t tell anyone.

  6. #3996
    Join Date: Aug 2009

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    I'm Martin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AJSki2fly View Post
    Spot on Geoff.

    The other aspect lots seem to choose to ignore is that coronavirus in several forms is what we call a ‘Common Cold’
    No-one is ignoring that, it just isn't relevant unless you are arguing that a vaccine is impossible. 'Flu is a covid virus and we have vaccines for that, they just have to keep up with the mutations.

    If a vaccine is impossible then, barring a mutation into a less harmful form, herd immunity is still the only solution.
    Current Lash Up:

    TEAC VRDS 701T > Sony TAE1000ESD > Krell KSA50S > JM Labs Focal Electra 926.

  7. #3997
    Join Date: Feb 2010

    Location: Moved to frozen north, beyond Inverness

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    I'm Dave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    No-one is ignoring that, it just isn't relevant unless you are arguing that a vaccine is impossible. 'Flu is a covid virus and we have vaccines for that, they just have to keep up with the mutations.

    If a vaccine is impossible then, barring a mutation into a less harmful form, herd immunity is still the only solution.
    Herd immunity is a solution, but the current infection rates are far too low for that to occur in a short while. Some have argued that looking at mathematical models doesn't tell the whole story - and I agree - but even a "simple" model such as the SIR model will show the nature of the progress of this kind of disease. It is quite easy to find details, and even on-line simulations for the SIR model, and by playing with the parameters one can notice that the current situation is that the disease is not going away - which some parameter sets would achieve rapidly - nor is it increasing fast enough for herd immunity to be a strong enough effect.

    The "simple" mathematical models also do not take into account mutations or other factors which the real world presents. Indeed it is possible that real world events may turn out better, but it is also possible that they will be worse.

    Assuming this thing is still a problem in a year or so - which is certainly looking likely right now - we will have a great deal more knowledge about it then, and new risk assessments.

    If we are lucky the disease will disappear like Spanish flu and the earlier version of SARS which seemed to die down of their own accord in a few years. That might actually be preferable to having to have possibly unreliable vaccinations every year or so.
    Dave

  8. #3998
    Join Date: Mar 2016

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    I'm Mike.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    I agree that if the virus mutates herd immunity cannot happen. But so far little or no evidence for that. Also if the virus mutates it can mutate into a form less powerful and less contagious. There was no vaccine for Spanish Flu yet it eventually petered out, likely due to a combination of it mutating to a less powerful strain and herd immunity being reached.

    Partial immunity is also possible, that is you could be re-infected with the new strain but as you have antibodies from the old strain that can help reduce the effect it has on you.

    Let's assume that mutation means herd immunity is impossible and that attempts to find a successful vaccine fail. What's the solution then? Lockdown forever resulting in economic collapse? Just a couple of months of lockdown reduced the UK economy by 25%. Permanent lockdown would lead to complete collapse, starvation, anarchy, basically the end of everything.

    Maybe herd immunity will not work, but since it is currently the only game in town I don't understand why there is any opposition to pursuing it.
    I read about a man in China who was admitted to hospital in the early days of Covid 19 due to serious symptoms, he recovered, then a few months later had a routine test which discovered reinfection of Covid, but this time he was symptomless. I fear the the economic collapse may already be inevitable, October the furlough ends, many London offices are still empty, a few sectors of the economy are still in complete lockdown, the recession will be severe and will lead to a depression, the changes I fear will be seismic, lockdown has revealed the precarious nature of our economy.
    Current system 1210 GR. CDP - Meridian G08. Amp -Sugden A21I - Sig. Wharfedale Lintons.

  9. #3999
    Join Date: Jan 2008

    Location: Wrexham, North Wales, UK

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    More contagious and with more powerful effect on the health of the individual. It is more serious than swine flu.
    Possibly...

    Marco.
    Main System

    Turntable: Heavily-modified Technics SL-1210MK5G [Mike New bearing/ETP platter/Paul Hynes SR7 PSU & reg mods]. Funk Firm APM Achromat/Nagaoka GL-601 Crystal Record Weight/Isonoe feet & boots/Ortofon RS-212D/Denon DL-103GL in Denon PCL-300 headshell with Funk Firm Houdini/Kondo SL-115 pure-silver cartridge leads.

    Paul Hynes MC head amp/SR5 PSU. Also modded Lentek head amp/Denon AU-310 SUT.

    Other Cartridges: Nippon Columbia (NOS 1987) Denon DL-103. USA-made Shure SC35C with NOS stylus. Goldring G820 with NOS stylus. Shure M55E with NOS stylus.

    CD Player: Audiocom-modified Sony X-777ES/DAS-R1 DAC.

    Tape Deck: Tandberg TCD 310, fully restored and recalibrated as new, by RDE, plus upgraded with heads from the TCD-420a. Also with matching TM4 Norway microphones.

    Preamps: Heavily-modified Croft Charisma-X. LDR Stereo Coffee. Power Amps: Tube Distinctions Copper Amp fitted with Tungsol KT-150s. Quad 306.

    Cables & Sundries: Mark Grant HDX1 interconnects and digital coaxial cable, plus Mark Grant 6mm UP-LCOFC Van Damme speaker cable. MCRU 'Ultimate' mains leads. Lehmann clone headphone amp with vintage Koss PRO-4AAA headphones.

    Tube Distinctions digital noise filter. VPI HW16.5 record cleaning machine.

    Speakers: Tannoy 15MGs in Lockwood cabinets with modified crossovers. 1967 Celestion Ditton 15.


    Protect your HUMAN RIGHTS and REFUSE ANY *MANDATORY* VACCINE FOR COVID-19!

    Also **SAY NO** to unjust 'vaccine passports' or certificates, which are totally incompatible with a FREE society!!!


  10. #4000
    Join Date: Jan 2008

    Location: Wrexham, North Wales, UK

    Posts: 110,012
    I'm AudioAl'sArbiterForPISHANTO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    I agree that if the virus mutates herd immunity cannot happen. But so far little or no evidence for that. Also if the virus mutates it can mutate into a form less powerful and less contagious. There was no vaccine for Spanish Flu yet it eventually petered out, likely due to a combination of it mutating to a less powerful strain and herd immunity being reached.
    Exactly, and I believe that in time that's exactly what will happen with Covid. But as you say, we can't shut down the world and effectively put so many people's lives on hold until it happens, as it's getting to the stage now that the effect of the restrictions imposed is becoming worse than that of the virus!

    Let's assume that mutation means herd immunity is impossible and that attempts to find a successful vaccine fail. What's the solution then? Lockdown forever resulting in economic collapse? Just a couple of months of lockdown reduced the UK economy by 25%. Permanent lockdown would lead to complete collapse, starvation, anarchy, basically the end of everything.

    Maybe herd immunity will not work, but since it is currently the only game in town I don't understand why there is any opposition to pursuing it.
    Precisely, and it's a fact that the 'eternal worriers' and/or doom & gloom merchants don't seem to want to embrace and accept

    As I said WAY back on this thread: there is no point in living, if you don't have a life! (No job, no money, effectively under permanent house arrest, or restricted to limited movements or social interaction, without being 'tracked', etc, etc).

    I'd rather be dead, 'cos that ain't no life

    Marco.
    Main System

    Turntable: Heavily-modified Technics SL-1210MK5G [Mike New bearing/ETP platter/Paul Hynes SR7 PSU & reg mods]. Funk Firm APM Achromat/Nagaoka GL-601 Crystal Record Weight/Isonoe feet & boots/Ortofon RS-212D/Denon DL-103GL in Denon PCL-300 headshell with Funk Firm Houdini/Kondo SL-115 pure-silver cartridge leads.

    Paul Hynes MC head amp/SR5 PSU. Also modded Lentek head amp/Denon AU-310 SUT.

    Other Cartridges: Nippon Columbia (NOS 1987) Denon DL-103. USA-made Shure SC35C with NOS stylus. Goldring G820 with NOS stylus. Shure M55E with NOS stylus.

    CD Player: Audiocom-modified Sony X-777ES/DAS-R1 DAC.

    Tape Deck: Tandberg TCD 310, fully restored and recalibrated as new, by RDE, plus upgraded with heads from the TCD-420a. Also with matching TM4 Norway microphones.

    Preamps: Heavily-modified Croft Charisma-X. LDR Stereo Coffee. Power Amps: Tube Distinctions Copper Amp fitted with Tungsol KT-150s. Quad 306.

    Cables & Sundries: Mark Grant HDX1 interconnects and digital coaxial cable, plus Mark Grant 6mm UP-LCOFC Van Damme speaker cable. MCRU 'Ultimate' mains leads. Lehmann clone headphone amp with vintage Koss PRO-4AAA headphones.

    Tube Distinctions digital noise filter. VPI HW16.5 record cleaning machine.

    Speakers: Tannoy 15MGs in Lockwood cabinets with modified crossovers. 1967 Celestion Ditton 15.


    Protect your HUMAN RIGHTS and REFUSE ANY *MANDATORY* VACCINE FOR COVID-19!

    Also **SAY NO** to unjust 'vaccine passports' or certificates, which are totally incompatible with a FREE society!!!


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