Johns Hopkins Medical Centre - World Coronavirus infection Map by Country.

[struth]

Here you go: https://theartofsound.net/forum/show...43#post1205743

Please read it, including details of the link therein, and I'd be obliged of your thoughts afterwards

Marco.

vaccine is still some time away imo.. they have found a few other things that migjht also be of use .. no matter what they go for, and that should read if... as we may never get one(we havent for the cold) it will only be part successful and will be superceded quickly, probably several times.
there will be political pressure to use one and hope..Boris wont give a fcuk if loads of folk die...("it was the science honest")

[Marco]

Mmm... Maybes aye, maybes naw.

So what about all that stuff about surveillance? That didn't just come out of the blue... I'm afraid that words such as "surveillance", "monitoring" and "mandatory", in relation to this whole thing, don't sit very well with me at all.

Marco.

[struth]

Mmm... Maybes aye, maybes naw.

So what about all that stuff about surveillance? That didn't just come out of the blue... I'm afraid that words such as "surveillance", "monitoring" and "mandatory", in relation to this whole thing, don't sit very well with me at all.

Marco.

well they wont be putting a chip in.. that just wouldnt be allowed even here, far less america. there would be a revolution... but surveillance is a word with many connetations and is often used as clickbait,

[Macca]

My Response, not sure what else there is to say really.

Here are some facts about how stupid we all actually are...

The average adult with no chess training will beat the average five year old with no chess training 100 games out of 100 under normal conditions.
The average 1600 Elo rated chess player – a player with several years of experience – will beat that average adult 100 games out of 100.
A top “super” grandmaster will beat the Elo 600 rated player 100 games out of 100.

Analogous to ..a grandmaster is 10,000 times better than average

This distribution is pretty similar across other domains which require purely mental rather than physical skill, but it's easy to measure in chess because there's a very accurate rating system and a record of millions of games to draw on.

Here's what that means.
The top performers in an intellectual domain outperform even an experienced amateur by a similar margin to that with which an average adult would outperform an average five year old.

The average person on the street with no training or experience wouldn't even register as a challenge to a super GM, there'd be no quantifiable difference between them and an untrained five year old in how easy they are to beat.
Their chances are literally zero.

This means that people's attempts to apply “common sense” - i.e., untrained thinking – to criticise scientific or historical research or statistical analysis or a mathematical model or an economic policy is like a five year old turning up at their parent's job and insisting they know how to do it better.

They would not only be wrong, they would be unlikely to even understand the explanation of why they were wrong. And then they would cry, still failing to understand, still believing that they're right and that the whole adult world must be against them. You know, like “researchers” on Facebook.
That's where relying on "common sense" gets you. To an actual expert you look like an infant having a tantrum because the world is too complicated for you to understand.
And that, my friends, is science.

Tom Denton -

You can program a computer to beat any human player because chess is fully quantifiable.

Complex subjects like economics are not. There's no such thing as an 'expert' in economics, or any similar field. There are just too many unknown variables and too many complex inter-relationships.

Doctors make mistakes regardless of their training and experience. It's very common. Ask any lawyer who specialises in medical malpractice.

There's no valid analogy with chess.

[Marco]

well they wont be putting a chip in.. that just wouldnt be allowed even here, far less america. there would be a revolution... but surveillance is a word with many connetations and is often used as clickbait,

I take your point on clickbait, but I still expect them to come up with some sort of 'vaccine' on or before Jan 2021, as if not there'll be little of this virus left to warrant one! And that won't suit the agenda of the big pharma companies and those who've invested heavily in them, and who've been planning for some time to make a killing from the sale of vaccines for Covid-19.

Marco.

[struth]

chances are covid 19 will rear its head again so probably will be a need for some sort of cure or vaccine. just have to look at the states and brasil where they poopooed it and now its biting them in the poo hole.
govt has been told what they need to do to avoid it, yet boris didnt even bother to read it.. what a piece of shit he is.

[Gazjam]

In your opinion, which the Author (and I) disagree with, which is cool.

Chess was just an example, not the specific of the Statement.
Replace Chess with any other “intellectual domain”, it holds true.

Is there an Expert Poker player for instance?
No absolutes in human endeavour, expert doesn’t mean perfect 100% of the time all the time, just that in that fact based field/fields they know more than you.
But you know, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, given a level of entitlement, which is kinda the issue .

(see earlier point about not arguing with a surgeon before an Operation)

Anyway,
Wanted to throw something out I felt was appropriate here, not taking the credit for the statement so nothing really to say other than I agree with it.

You can program a computer to beat any human player because chess is fully quantifiable.

Complex subjects like economics are not. There's no such thing as an 'expert' in economics, or any similar field. There are just too many unknown variables and too many complex inter-relationships.

Doctors make mistakes regardless of their training and experience. It's very common. Ask any lawyer who specialises in medical malpractice.

There's no valid analogy with chess.

[Gazjam]

chances are covid 19 will rear its head again so probably will be a need for some sort of cure or vaccine. just have to look at the states and brasil where they poopooed it and now its biting them in the poo hole.
govt has been told what they need to do to avoid it, yet boris didnt even bother to read it.. what a piece of shit he is.

Starmer’s wiping the floor with him, all Bojo has is bluster and bullshit.
Story of his political career really.

[Macca]

In your opinion, which the Author (and I) disagree with, which is cool.

Chess was just an example, not the specific of the Statement.
Replace Chess with any other “intellectual domain”, it holds true.

Is there an Expert Poker player for instance?
No absolutes in human endeavour, expert doesn’t mean perfect 100% of the time all the time, just that in that fact based field/fields they know more than you.
But you know, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, given a level of entitlement, which is kinda the issue .

(see earlier point about not arguing with a surgeon before an Operation)

Anyway,
Wanted to throw something out I felt was appropriate here, not taking the credit for the statement so nothing really to say other than I agree with it.

Leaving the chess thing aside, how is any of this relevant to the discussion? A doctor knows more than a civilian does about medicine. I mean it's just a truism isn't it?

One thing you do notice when people of the same profession get together, and it doesn't matter what the profession is, they will still disagree with one another about certain things. Listening to such a discussion can be very educational because they will only argue about the topics that are not settled.

Whereas a neophyte in the subject will argue the toss over irrelevancies, or areas of debate that they are unaware were long since settled. They don't know what they don't know and so conclude that they know a lot more than they actually do. The Dunning-Kruger effect as it's known.

Is that broadly what you are saying?

[Gazjam]

Not exactly that, no.

Its more about with all the (mis)information online about just about anything, one blast of Wikipedia/ YouTube and everyone's an expert nowadays.

The rise in conspiracy theories seems to be running parallel with the ongoing rejection of advice from experts, about 'hard fact' matters such as science and Technology.

Its not enough to have an opinion, a lot of people need to have their own FACTS, and doubling down to never to accept they can be wrong.
Its dangerous.
I've seen a lot of people not just believing dumb things, but resisting learning rather than let go of those beliefs, especially when it comes to serious issues like Pandemics or disasters.

To the point where a gathered Opinion is an equivalent to a scientific Fact, and experts with knowledge are dismissed or discredited.

Of course there are always bad characters taking advantage of this for their own Agenda's, that's a fact.

Unlimited information is making us dumber, bringing out all the usual nut-bar conspiracy theories and the like.