Originally Posted by
Marco
But how do you know if a spin's been put on it, if you can't see it? Especially when the "spin" simply fits with what you WANT to believe! Whether a "spin" exists or not is subjective, based on your mindset. That's my point.
Data is obtained by collating information, but the process is still potentially open to corruption, as it depends on who's collating the data and for what purpose, and if they have an agenda. Perhaps Trump doesn't trust the CDC (as he rightly doesn't trust many things at the moment, including Fauci), and so that explains his actions?
Facts are only FACTS when they're indisputable, such as 1+1=2. Anything less than that, in terms if of being indisputable, isn't fact. It's simply information for considering.
Marco.
My Response, not sure what else there is to say really.
Here are some facts about how stupid we all actually are...
The average adult with no chess training will beat the average five year old with no chess training 100 games out of 100 under normal conditions.
The average 1600 Elo rated chess player – a player with several years of experience – will beat that average adult 100 games out of 100.
A top “super” grandmaster will beat the Elo 600 rated player 100 games out of 100.
Analogous to ..a grandmaster is 10,000 times better than average
This distribution is pretty similar across other domains which require purely mental rather than physical skill, but it's easy to measure in chess because there's a very accurate rating system and a record of millions of games to draw on.
Here's what that means.
The top performers in an intellectual domain outperform even an experienced amateur by a similar margin to that with which an average adult would outperform an average five year old.
The average person on the street with no training or experience wouldn't even register as a challenge to a super GM, there'd be no quantifiable difference between them and an untrained five year old in how easy they are to beat.
Their chances are literally zero.
This means that people's attempts to apply “common sense” - i.e., untrained thinking – to criticise scientific or historical research or statistical analysis or a mathematical model or an economic policy is like a five year old turning up at their parent's job and insisting they know how to do it better.
They would not only be wrong, they would be unlikely to even understand the explanation of why they were wrong. And then they would cry, still failing to understand, still believing that they're right and that the whole adult world must be against them. You know, like “researchers” on Facebook.
That's where relying on "common sense" gets you. To an actual expert you look like an infant having a tantrum because the world is too complicated for you to understand.
And that, my friends, is science.
Tom Denton -
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