https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Strictly for info, a legit source of information on this.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Strictly for info, a legit source of information on this.
As the UK approaches 400 diagnosed Coronavirus cases, one wonders how many others are incubating the illness with no symptoms yet and how many are infected but not aware of any significant feeling of being unwell? Possibly thousands.
I expect we will see this snowball very quickly. Not good!
Was a case literally 15 minutes drive from where I live, not great.
Stay safe, Gaz:)
Some interesting stats there, btw.
Marco.
I dont know what i get more sick of hearing about Corona or Brexit!
Being a certain age and with a raft of 'underlying problems' does focus your mind.
If you are young and fit, there is probably not much to worry about but if not, it could be a huge problem.
indeed dave.. i get it and i will most likely die... my lungs and heart may well pack in. sort of keeping as far away from everyone as i can, which tbh isnt that difficult as i dont see many anyway
Plus, Scotland so far [touch wood] hasn't had many confirmed cases of the virus. If I were you mate, I'd go with home deliveries, for your shopping for the foreseeable future, and wash your hands thoroughly after touching anything that comes through your door.
But yes, I do hope that our older and more infirm members can come through this situation in full health. The next two weeks, when things peak, will be crucial.
Marco.
population wise we are a few days behind england. next 4/5 days will be the testing point. personally i think they will close everything down... its worked elsewhere.. let everyone starve to death instead
10,000 cases in Italy now.
Not downplaying this at all, but other flu kills 290,000-650,000 every year worldwide. Never see that in the news.
for folk who are fairly healthy its not gonna hurt them any more than flu/cold... but others like me as an instance either flu or this could easily do for me.. although the flu vaccine covers many strains it doesnt cover all so i have to be careful all time, but this one is probably nastier. ive had pneumonia 3 times.. another i probably wont survive
When we get something like Pestilence then i might just worry about it. Thing is if something aint happening in MY country im not interested, cos if we just focused on OUR country there would no where near as much to worry about.
See that alone gets up my back with Charity, People seem more interested in deprivation in 3rd world countries than looking after the needs of our own..
Grant you give me the impression of a recluse anyway :D so dont worry
Andre,
There was a case of Coronavirus 15 minutes drive from where I live.
Its here man.
No-ones saying we have to panic, but it IS a thing and it’s here.
And being (moderately) young and fit, I’m a lot less at risk than others may be.
‘we all know somsome who may be at risk...just a thought.
Hey Shane,
I’m 50.
Not rude at all, why do you ask?
I think he working on your age Vs Risk. I had one of the worse bouts of pleurisy years ago. I had a effusion where i had to have my lungs drained of fluid as i could hardly breathe, they even had to put me to sleep to do it. . Id go for a piss and just drop down out for the count. I was told its always underlying.. Cause by a bad bacteria infection after Flu.. So i guess my card marked, not that i worry about it.
Had pleurisy as well. Bloody painful it was..
Also had a pandemic too in swine flu, which nearly killed me.. But not quite
Ordinarily I would agree with that Ali, but as yet we don't have any natural immunity to Covid-19, or a vaccine and as pointed out that's a very low number of deaths on a global scale. This has the potential to be lethal and one of the worlds leading authorities Dr Richard Hatchett from CEPI said this about it;
"I have been working on epidemic preparedness for about 20 years and completely dispassionately, without elevating the temperature or speaking hyperbolically, this is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career and that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS and it's frightening because of the combination of infectiousness and a lethality that appears to be many folds higher than flu"
The NHS and Government are now saying there is the potential for 80% of the UK to become infected, now with a flu fatality rate of 0.1 to 0.5% that maybe doesn't sound too scary, but do the maths on a fatality rate of 3%.
80% of 64 million = 51.2 million
3% of 51.2 million = 1.5 million
That would completely overwhelm pretty much every public service we have, let alone the financial cost and I dread to think what panic it might cause. So this is something everyone should be taking seriously. China took it deadly seriously, quarantined entire communities and built a huge hospital in Wuhan in 10 days! We don't have the ability to do anything like that. It's a legal requirement there now for all workers to have their temperature taken twice a day and record it, that's the entire country. So they have not messed about with it, but I guess they realise it's danger as they are at ground zero, but it's now gone global.
Those numbers are a worst case scenario and we are now forewarned by the huge crises in Italy, so hopefully we will take positive action if the numbers keep rising exponentially, but it's already at community infection level - as in being passed from people who have not been to a high risk area like Italy, or interacted with anyone from those areas. So complacency could have very serious consequences and way beyond no bog roll or pasta at Tesco.
If I was 25 I maybe wouldn't be too bothered, but I'm of an age where it could potentially kill me, so I am concerned.
https://youtu.be/3Sh7hghljuQ
Probably the only place in the world capable of doing this.
Tim,
that’s extremely impressive.
Sadly..I don’t think our Govm’t is capable of even 10% of that in a crisis.
Could always host a Cobra meeting, sounds good and it’s good for PR.
we’re in a similar situation as the US, the fish rots from the head and, well..Boris Johnston mumbling out of breath at the Podium, doesn't inspire much confidence.
Govt announcement later today regarding movement, schools, working from home etc
1.5 million over what period of time though and how many of those people would die anyway over that period of time even without this virus? 56706 people died in the UK in January 2020, that's before CV got here. So approx 600,000 die annually anyway and that does not overwhelm anything. It's serious, yes, but no point in losing perspective.
Funny how figures change :hmm:. I'm sure I recall the the UK population quoted as 78 million a few years back.
67 mil i think.. too high really but not silly high. might be higher with the illegals tho
3 nurses at my local hospital have been isolated while they are tested after a patient coughed on them after waking from an op....
There were about fifteen diagnosed cases within a five mile radius here last night according to the ITV News interactive map. No doubt as yet undiagnosed cases will be many times that.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/...teractive-map/
I have three hospital appointments in the next month. A hospital is the last place I want to visit at the moment!
big popu;ation in a relatively small area london, so no doubt will have the highest amount of cases. my region which is not the biggest has most cases tho up here...typical... expecting a big increase today
Yes Martin, which is why the word potential is there.
With what we now know about it's highly infectious nature and higher than flu fatality rate, I'd like to think we will respond accordingly and won't get numbers anything like that, as we haven't got the ability to respond like China. They are taking it very seriously, as WHO now is, whilst many of us seem to be questioning everything and playing it down as an over-reaction, which is what Brits do, we are naturally obstinate which has often served us well.
I think that's the wrong perspective, as I'd rather plan for the worst and be wrong, than be faced with a country in total lock down and an overwhelmed health service like Italy.
I don't know what the current population is Geoff, that was from memory and it's low, I just Googled it and it's likely now around 67 as the 2018 figure was 66?
I'll leave it there though as nothing I say will change peoples mind ;)
Nothing in north Wales yet (just south), but that'll no doubt change soon. Best plan, if you can, is to stay indoors and self-isolate regardless, even if you feel fine, and only go out when you *really* need to. That's what we're doing.
Marco.
death rate in Italy is around 7% at moment, although thats on reported cases, so may well be lower... There are quite possibly 2 strains now, 1 being more fatal than the other is the thought. Looks maybe better and safer than it probably is... it can take 4 to 10 days to appear so numbers can escalate rapidly
An important stat for Italy is that it has an older than average population, so that partly accounts for the higher mortality figures.
Marco.
Indeed... The way I see it, and this of course is no comfort to folks like Geoff or you, is that the virus is largely killing the elderly, and/or infirm (of any age) with existing health issues, and if you don't come into that category, although if you get the virus you may experience some adverse effects, you're very likely to be fine.
So although this is a serious situation, and the worst pandemic we've ever had, it's not likely to wipe out the world population anytime soon. Therefore, we just need to stay calm, follow the advice given, do what we need to do, and ride it out.
Marco.
I guess that's the difference Marco, one's own personal perspective, which puts me in what could be considered an 'at risk' category.
If I was a 30 year old scrum-half in rude health I'd probably be wondering what all the fuss was about . . . hey ho, it is what it is. I can do my best to avoid it and will and just hope that others do the same, who are less likely to be effected.
I'm wondering now if it's too early for a whisky, maybe midday :lol:
Yeah mate, may as well go down sinking a wee snifter... What would be the last tune you'd spin, before the lights went out?:D
Marco.
S.O.B by Nathaniel Rateliff i guess
Good song Grant.
This one I reckon Marco, Sandy (Denny) wrote this as a 19 year old, quite a song I think. And my lights have already stayed on longer than hers!
https://youtu.be/OkOB57UcYk8
;)
Well if you look into the leaked China figures that were on the high tech giant Tencent high tech IT site. see https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...a-Wuhan-latest. There are also other reports that the COVID-19 virus may have originated from a laboratory that was experimenting on horsehoe bats and was also suspected of being responsible for the SARS outbreak. https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird...ood-market-spt
As can be seen from the leaked figures if these are real then they indicate and 8-10% death rate in those infected and it would explain why the death rate in Italy is so high. A very good friend on mine was skiing in Austria last week and met a southern Italian senior medical worker, this chap said they knew they had a problem with a virus in Northern Italy mid December onwards but had no idea what it was or the seriousness, obviously it has since been identified as COVID-19. This implies the Pandora box had already been opened before China let everyone know in January.
Another friend who saw a senior Cardiac surgeon last week advised her to Socially Isolate herself from everyone, including friends and family, and he feared he would loose 15-20% of his heart and lung patients due to Coronavirus. So personally I am taking this matter quite seriously and we are both minimising seeing anyone unless absolutely necessary.
Another friend from Hampshire told us that someone at a pub quiz he attended last week on Thursday has been tested positive with COVID-19, the people sat immediately next to him have been told to 14 day self isolate and if one sat next to my friend develops it then my friend will need to isolate, he sadly has serious cardiac issues and is obviously concerned. Also a secondary school nearby has been closed due to 11 confirmed cases in the last few days.
So it is on the march, be careful everyone.
they are keeping the new figures under their hat anyway... always a bad sign
big jump in scotland as expected.. up to 60 cases now, thats now higher than england i think per capita... govt typically not doing much. ireland has shut schools
There is a lot more than what joe public know, i can assure you that cos ive been sworn to secrecy