View Full Version : should children be returning to full time education in a pandemic?
mad-moon
04-09-2020, 17:25
Should young children be returning to full time education, which is about to happen very shortly, during a pandemic.
Yes, because not doing so would ultimately be more damaging to their education than anything else!;)
We're at the stage now in this 'pandemic' [certainly the current situation here in the UK doesn't warrant that description] where we need to prioritise other areas of people's well-being (children included) over [in reality] the small risk of catching the virus and then spreading it to others.
Marco.
mad-moon
04-09-2020, 21:30
I hope your right...we shall see
Well, my first sentence on post 2 is almost certainly true!;)
As things stand now, the main focus must be on addressing the detrimental impact on people of any restrictive measures imposed, with a view to controlling the spread of the virus, than on fretting over the potential effects of the virus itself.
In that respect, focussing on children receiving the education that they need, and limiting the impact on mental health, as a result of the loss of freedoms, and being scared to go outside of your house and function normally, something usually taken for granted, has to take precedence.
Marco.
I think the tenet of if your in the, 'at risk' group, then keep your distance from everyone, and you should be OK. For us it's not over or at minimal risk.
Kids do need to get back to normalsy now. It is important, as it is for the general 'not at risk' population.
I think the tenet of if your in the, 'at risk' group, then keep your distance from everyone, and you should be OK.
"Ok" how, though? *Maybe* in terms of not getting infected, and that certainly isn't guaranteed, but ultimately at what cost to your mental (and also physical) health? I know people in your category, mate (your age and older), who are struggling terribly with effectively being prisoners in their own homes, simply because they're too scared to go out!:doh:
That situation simply isn't sustainable, no matter how you cut it. The fact is, not everyone is comfortable or able to cope with being on their own, day in day out, for months on end, as you. As I've said before, for those in your category, currently doing the same: you may be alive, but you're certainly not LIVING....:(
Marco.
It's not scared. It's using their common sense as they see it. A year out of your life might seem a lot but is it?
Didn't say you were, but rather the old folks I know and have referred to. I can tell you that the mental anguish of being alone within the same four walls since March is taking a severe toll. They're scared out of their wits to set foot outside of their door!:doh:
To answer your question, a lot could happen in that year, including dying from the effects of loneliness and the sense that there's no longer anything worth living for... The fact is, if you're waiting for this virus simply to 'disappear' before beginning living normally again, then you could be in for a very LONG wait!
So how long are you willing to imprison yourself in that way, simply to achieve some notion of safety?
Marco.
Sherwood
04-09-2020, 23:49
No. Until a safe and effective vaccine is produced and is widely adopted, or more effective therapeutics developed, the challenge is to contain the epidemic. There is ample evidence globally that when students return to school or uni without effective preventative measures that a spike in infection occurs soon after. The UK has had one of the poorest global responses to the pandemic but it has managed to "flatten the curve" somewhat. Despite this, we remain in a highly precarious position and it is entirely possible that we could see a return to previous infection levels or higher. We will shortly see the annual increase in morbidity due to flu, pneumonia and other respiratory infections, which stacked upon covid infections will present an unprecedented and overwhelming winter burden on the NHS.
Whilst there are costs and consequences in keeping children from school, the alternative is far more hazardous. Distance learning is not ideal but it is workable. Furthermore, there is no reason why kids or adults should not leave their homes providing that they socially distance and wear masks when in close proximity to other people. I still cannot understand why the public have not yet fully grasped the potential for huge mortality and long term chronic illness that covid presents. Even if it meant that all schoolchildren lost a full year of schooling (a highly unlikely and unnecessary possibility) that would be a modest price to pay for the potential health gains.
No doubt there is paranoia about catching said virus. I'm not immune to it.
A lot of kids have started to show signs of mental stress so they need to return. In fact they have been back up here for a while. As has college. Uni s are about to start.
Tbh I can manage in house better now than in first months and psychologically I'm managing OK considering.
The economy does need to continue tho or we will all be in worse condition than just a virus.
As it stands the country will be paying this off for 20 years
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 00:16
No doubt there is paranoia about catching said virus. I'm not immune to it.
A lot of kids have started to show signs of mental stress so they need to return. In fact they have been back up here for a while. As has college. Uni s are about to start.
Tbh I can manage in house better now than in first months and psychologically I'm managing OK considering.
The economy does need to continue tho or we will all be in worse condition than just a virus.
As it stands the country will be paying this off for 20 years
It's not paranoia. It is a highly infectious virus with a relatively high case fatality rate. Also, as we are gradually learning, the disease may be responsible for a plethora of long term chronic morbidity too.
Yes, it is important that kids go back to school, but only when it is safe to do so. Now is not the time.
The full economic costs of the virus are not yet known but will be immense. Many members of this forum are retired or approaching retirement so they will not be paying off the accumulated debt that successive governments have built up over decades and which covid has greatly added to. That will fall to the so called "millenials" and their offspring. The phrase, "the new normal" is widely used but I doubt if many of us appreciate how radically that this pandemic and the ones that will follow, must change the fundamentals of society and the way we live. Frankly, a delayed return to school is to my mind the least of our concerns.
dave2010
05-09-2020, 05:45
It makes sense for kids to go to school as long as cases are at a low level - which perhaps they now are. There are various estimates of the R value - between 0.9 and 1.1 in England has been declared, but Sturgeon has said that it's above 1 in Scotland - with an upper limit perhaps of 1.4. If hot spots can be noticed in time, and action taken quickly, then it's probably OK to send the school kids back.
The obvious danger is that the kids will spread it to parents, and thence to more elderly relatives. Some kids go on public transport to schools - so may spread the virus further - but that might only be a problem if the transport is shared with other members of the public.
Some of the economic "damage" might make sense anyway. Parts of the economy have been running at ludicrously high levels - overcrowded roads, trains, and airports. Yes - we don't want a complete collapse of all activities, but some could very reasonably be cut back a lot. Now people have discovered that they can actually work at home at least part of the time - why shouldn't that become a new model? Even if commuting round London were reduced to 50% of what it was before, there would still be full trains and roads, though they could operate more effectively.
The economic concerns are that if activity drops too far, then systems won't be maintained, and will become completely unviable, both operationally and regarding economic viability. OTOH I find the notion that people have to go to work so that sandwich bars can open completely bonkers. There will be some fallout re employment, but people can adapt, and find new opportunities.
The virus has probably modified, and may currently be less virulent than before, though that doesn't mean it couldn't still be a very significant threat, and could become modified further and somewhat less benign. Care and vigilance is still needed.
The UK has had one of the poorest global responses to the pandemic but it has managed to "flatten the curve" somewhat.
In Europe maybe (and once population density is taken into account we have arguably done better than Italy, France and Spain), but certainly not globally. What are they doing for containment in Indian subcontinent, Africa, South America? Absolutely nothing, because they can't. They don't have the money or the infrastructure. They are pursuing herd immunity by default.
Given that those locations account for more than half the world's population it strikes me as naïve to think that western countries can somehow remain islands of isolation in the long-term regardless of how draconian their infection-prevention measures are.
Also measures in the UK did not 'flatten the curve somewhat', they flattened it massively.
As Sir Humphrey points out in 'Yes Minister', the primary purpose of school is not education, but to give parents somewhere to put their children whilst they go out to work. Only a minority of workers can do their job from home. All other workers with children need the daycare that schools provide so they can get out and earn a living.
Filterlab
05-09-2020, 07:24
What pandemic?
Precisely.
Worldwide deaths (allegedly*) from COVID-19 (total so far): 879,028 (according to today's figures)
Worldwide deaths from stroke/heart disease (2016): 15,200,000
Worldwide deaths from Pneumonia (2017): 2,560,000
Worldwide deaths due to road traffic accidents (2018): 1,350,000
:whistle:
Yet nobody says a thing about Pneumonia year on year on year. Nobody is banning everyone from vehicles. Strange times. COVID is merely a drop in the ocean of annual causes of death, even Tuberculosis still kills almost 2 million a year!
Get the kids back to school I say! :)
*I say allegedly, first hand experience: My CEO's girlfriend took her mum to hospital with breathing problems. They tested her four times for COVID and Sars-2. Negative every time. She passed away. Cause of death on her cert? COVID.
I have had a few conversations with people who are working from home and have children. In all cases they have complained that the children are bored and getting on their nerves and preventing them from working. I've asked them what they have done to educate their children at home (aside from the small amount of work remotely assigned by the school). In all cases the answer has been 'nothing'.
That amazes me. No wonder the children are bored. I suggested that maybe they could do something simple like assign the child a book to read and then for them to write a thousand word essay about the book. That keeps the child busy and requires none or minimal interaction with the parent, allowing them to get on with their job.
The suggestion has been met with astonishment and incredulity. One parent advised me that this was impossible for them since they didn't have any books in the house!
walpurgis
05-09-2020, 07:52
One parent advised me that this was impossible for them since they didn't have any books in the house!
For me, that's hard to comprehend, apart from the traditional illiterate oiks, you'd expect every home of reasonably intelligent people to be brimming with books (mine is). I suspect it's probably more common these days, with folk relying more on electronic devices to occupy themselves.
Lawrence001
05-09-2020, 08:26
As the parent of 4 and 8 year olds I can tell you that setting them something to do at the start of the day is not an option, it could work for (well behaved) teenagers though.
My children needed someone with them constantly unless you gave them screens to play on. (That was our strategy at the start and behaviour levels collapsed to unbearable within days.)
Also, parents are not qualified teachers so as well as the mental health aspect, a year of reduced education has a massive impact on their intellectual progression at that age, as does not mixing with other children to their ability to socialise well.
The fact is that if you want to keep schools shut you have to accept that parents of children under the age of about 14 will only be able to do minimal work (assuming they can do their jobs from home at all) which risks the economy. This is the trade off that the government is dealing with.
Sent from my HRY-LX1 using Tapatalk
Precisely.
Worldwide deaths (allegedly*) from COVID-19 (total so far): 879,028 (according to today's figures)
Worldwide deaths from stroke/heart disease (2016): 15,200,000
Worldwide deaths from Pneumonia (2017): 2,560,000
Worldwide deaths due to road traffic accidents (2018): 1,350,000
:whistle:
Yet nobody says a thing about Pneumonia year on year on year. Nobody is banning everyone from vehicles. Strange times. COVID is merely a drop in the ocean of annual causes of death, even Tuberculosis still kills almost 2 million a year!
Get the kids back to school I say! :)
*I say allegedly, first hand experience: My CEO's girlfriend took her mum to hospital with breathing problems. They tested her four times for COVID and Sars-2. Negative every time. She passed away. Cause of death on her cert? COVID.
western developed countries especially where they have large concentrated pops, only got away with such a low rate because of the shutdown tho(or thats the consensus).. now we have some semblence of orginisation, it makes more sense to try and meet it half way.
Stratmangler
05-09-2020, 08:40
The little darlings have to go back to school because home schooling is such a rampaging success
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/six-months-whinging-about-homeschool-and-you-taught-them-fk-all-20200901200014
nonuffin
05-09-2020, 08:52
From what I have witnessed from the youth of today, they are about as smart as they were when they started school as when they left. From an early age they are plonked in front of the telly, rarely engaged with their parents who are "too busy" for any kind of one on one communication. I know of 8 year olds that spend most of their time on their I-pad or mobile phone tucked away in their bedrooms, called down only for their meals in which they are fed with junk foods that contain salt and sugar that leads to obesity. Go into any McDonalds and see countless children hooked on their brand of food.
Most have zero work ethic and fail to turn up for work on the flimsiest of excuses, they see the "woke" movement as a new religion, they want all the trappings of adulthood like sex, booze and drugs, but none of the drawbacks. Ask any of them what the capital city of any country is and you get a blank look or the wrong answer entirely. A blown lightbulb really challenges them.
They aspire to being a pop star or an "influencer" on facebook, rolling in easy money from "looking good" like the Kardashians and living off the bank of mum and dad in the meantime. Yes there are some that are driven to better themselves, but that is in spite of their upbringing not because of it.
It annoys the hell out of me when the parents of today are whining about having their kids at home constantly under their feet, but they are missing a rare opportunity to actually CONNECT with their children and teach them social values like manners, respect and discipline.
As the parent of 4 and 8 year olds I can tell you that setting them something to do at the start of the day is not an option, it could work for (well behaved) teenagers though.
My children needed someone with them constantly unless you gave them screens to play on. (That was our strategy at the start and behaviour levels collapsed to unbearable within days.)
4 years old I can understand but an 8 year old should be able to sit and read a book and write an essay unsupervised. Okay I don't have young children but in my own childhood during school holidays we never had any adult supervision. We would read (mostly comics but also proper books - Enid Blyton et al) or play with Lego, or, weather permitting, play cricket or football in the back yard.
I don't really understand what has changed that children of 8 years old need constant parental attention. On a Saturday morning my parents would have a lie in, but we would be up early to watch the children's programmes on TV, we'd boil the kettle and make tea and light the gas grill (required pulling a stool over to the cooker in order to be able to reach) and make toast.
Now parents tell me they cannot sleep in at weekends as the children are in their bedroom at 6 am jumping on the bed and getting them up. We would never in a million years have contemplated doing that! Aside from the threat of physical punishment we also understood that our parents were up early and worked hard in the week and deserved to be left undisturbed on weekends.
Some good points have been made here, chaps, outlining the REALITY of the situation, rather than what's believed as a result of having been brainwashed by government and media propaganda. I'll comment more later, but Rob is spot on here:
Worldwide deaths (allegedly*) from COVID-19 (total so far): 879,028 (according to today's figures)
Worldwide deaths from stroke/heart disease (2016): 15,200,000
Worldwide deaths from Pneumonia (2017): 2,560,000
Worldwide deaths due to road traffic accidents (2018): 1,350,000
:whistle:
Yet nobody says a thing about Pneumonia year on year on year. Nobody is banning everyone from vehicles. Strange times. COVID is merely a drop in the ocean of annual causes of death, even Tuberculosis still kills almost 2 million a year!
Indeed... There's an obvious agenda at work, in terms of how this 'pandemic' is being falsely portrayed by governments and media worldwide, ramping up the fear factor and turning it into something MUCH more serious than it *actually* is, and which as yet hasn't been revealed.
And with respect to Geoff (Sherwood), I've no idea where he's getting the notion that Covid-19 has "quite a high death rate", as the figures tell a rather different story, and indeed indicate the exact opposite:
Total deaths so far in the UK: 41,537, out of a total population of 67 million!
That's a (thankfully) piss-poor death rate, not "a quite high one" - and remember that was when it caught us by surprise and we knew next to nothing about it, so if there's a 'second wave'. which I doubt, we'll be far better equipped this time round to deal with it. Therefore if it happens, one would expect the death toll to be far less. Plus we also know now how to control the spread better.
We've also discovered that drugs such as Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine are effective in helping treat some of the effects of Covid-19, giving those who've got it badly a much better chance of surviving, which again will help.
And of course how many death stats from Covid have been falsely registered in the way you've described? I've been hearing all sorts of tales of underhand shenanigans going on in hospitals, in that respect, from people I know with family members who work in the NHS, as doctors and nurses. Something fishy is afoot...
Get the kids back to school I say! :)
Indeed. As Martin's pointed out, it's not JUST about the impact on their education, with kids not going to school, it's everything else attached to that, and the knock-on effect it has on many others, which must also be taken into consideration - and which, cumulatively, is substantial.
No, kids must get back to school, ASAP, and both they and society as a whole start getting back to some sort of normal life, before the normal life we once knew is consigned to history!
Marco.
From what I have witnessed from the youth of today, they are about as smart as they were when they started school as when they left. From an early age they are plonked in front of the telly, rarely engaged with their parents who are "too busy" for any kind of one on one communication. I know of 8 year olds that spend most of their time on their I-pad or mobile phone tucked away in their bedrooms, called down only for their meals in which they are fed with junk foods that contain salt and sugar that leads to obesity. Go into any McDonalds and see countless children hooked on their brand of food.
Most have zero work ethic and fail to turn up for work on the flimsiest of excuses, they see the "woke" movement as a new religion, they want all the trappings of adulthood like sex, booze and drugs, but none of the drawbacks. Ask any of them what the capital city of any country is and you get a blank look or the wrong answer entirely. A blown lightbulb really challenges them.
They aspire to being a pop star or an "influencer" on facebook, rolling in easy money from "looking good" like the Kardashians and living off the bank of mum and dad in the meantime. Yes there are some that are driven to better themselves, but that is in spite of their upbringing not because of it.
It annoys the hell out of me when the parents of today are whining about having their kids at home constantly under their feet, but they are missing a rare opportunity to actually CONNECT with their children and teach them social values like manners, respect and discipline.
:clapclapclap:
Spot on, and it fucks me off like you wouldn't believe... There's *SO* much I could say about the points you've raised, and will do later!
Marco.
I have had a few conversations with people who are working from home and have children. In all cases they have complained that the children are bored and getting on their nerves and preventing them from working. I've asked them what they have done to educate their children at home (aside from the small amount of work remotely assigned by the school). In all cases the answer has been 'nothing'.
That amazes me. No wonder the children are bored. I suggested that maybe they could do something simple like assign the child a book to read and then for them to write a thousand word essay about the book. That keeps the child busy and requires none or minimal interaction with the parent, allowing them to get on with their job.
The suggestion has been met with astonishment and incredulity. One parent advised me that this was impossible for them since they didn't have any books in the house!
What about all their freaking 'Kindles'?;)
Marco.
The "test" of whether or not it has been a wise decision will be whether there is a spike in deaths of (over) fifty year old teachers. I doubt whether any data relating to this would ever be released though.
I find it hard to believe that distancing will be possible in state school classrooms where there are over thirty pupils. My personal feeling is that most schools would need to run a rota system of one week in, one week off (with set work) for any semblance of safe working practices.
seems to be working in scottish schools. covid is just a small part of absenteeism. most are from colds, and why we had a run on tests etc as parents panicked a bit.
The tests themselves seem to be too sensitive at moment producing too many false positives(picking up old viral strands) . As you increase tests, and they are too sensitive, you will get a lot of positive results..more than are actually positive.
its not a failing as such by anyone, just something that will have to be considered going forward.
Also i think flu deaths this year may well be down by a fair bit...time will tell on that.
What about all their freaking 'Kindles'?;)
Marco.
No, they just don't read at all and don't see any reason why their children should either.
I'm working from home and if I had an 8 year old I would give them something reasonably challenging and educational to read, 'Lord Of The Flies' or 'To Kill a Mockingbird' , something along those lines. Doesn't matter if it is a physical book or on a kindle. I'd make it clear that I have to be undisturbed to work or I'll get the sack and we'll be out on the street with nothing. An 8 year old can grasp that concept and understand that they need to cooperate.
At 5 o'clock I'd give them an hour of my time to discuss the book and answer any questions they have. When they have finished the book they can spend a day writing the essay. Non-compliance would mean video games and TV privileges would be revoked. When the work is done to my satisfaction then they would be allowed to play games or watch TV. Set the routine and the boundaries early on, don't allow any nonsense from them, they'll soon adapt and knuckle down.
Parents seem to be afraid to be strict with their children these days, and they get overly familiar with them. One of my brother's children didn't seem to be able to distinguish adults from other children, ignoring instructions and being cheeky. I didn't find it that difficult to dissuade them from that notion by simply pretending to get angry. Now if I am there they behave themselves and do what they are told without hesitation. I just introduced a slight element of fear, that's no bad thing.
Discopants
05-09-2020, 09:29
+1 Lawrence , we have an 8 year old and both work , shes too young to be self lead in learning. The school was very good in providing both paper and online learning resources of a high standard but its still an enormous challenge to support that at home as a parent. Shes been watching TV half the day, we have dragged her out for dog walks and bike rides but shes missed all the usual swimming, brownies, afterschool activities and time with grandparents and friends.
The risks to her physical health from this virus are minimal. The impact on her emotional and physical wellbeing and development was not insignificant for those 6 months.
She was so excited to get back to school and see her friends that she was dressed and by my bed waking me up at 6:30 on the first day back.
Im 100% behind schools going back at the current rates of infection within the community. We will monitor the data locally and adjust how we interact with grandparents if the infection rate rises here.
Its now about personal risks and informed choices for the more vulnerable but even those have to be balanced.
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No, they just don't read at all and don't see any reason why their children should either.
I'm working from home and if I had an 8 year old I would give them something reasonably challenging and educational to read, 'Lord Of The Flies' or 'To Kill a Mockingbird' , something along those lines. Doesn't matter if it is a physical book or on a kindle. I'd make it clear that I have to be undisturbed to work or I'll get the sack and we'll be out on the street with nothing. An 8 year old can grasp that concept and understand that they need to cooperate.
At 5 o'clock I'd give them an hour of my time to discuss the book and answer any questions they have. When they have finished the book they can spend a day writing the essay. Non-compliance would mean video games and TV privileges would be revoked. When the work is done to my satisfaction then they would be allowed to play games or watch TV. Set the routine and the boundaries early on, don't allow any nonsense from them, they'll soon adapt and knuckle down.
Parents seem to be afraid to be strict with their children these days, and they get overly familiar with them. One of my brother's children didn't seem to be able to distinguish adults from other children, ignoring instructions and being cheeky. I didn't find it that difficult to dissuade them from that notion by simply pretending to get angry. Now if I am there they behave themselves and do what they are told without hesitation. I just introduced a slight element of fear, that's no bad thing.
sounds easy;)
The risks to her physical health from this virus are minimal. The impact on her emotional and physical wellbeing and development was not insignificant for those 6 months.
She was so excited to get back to school and see her friends that she was dressed and by my bed waking me up at 6:30 on the first day back.
^^ This is the key, and *exactly* why kids need to be back among their own, leaning people skills and how to develop into adults, not cocooned at home with only their parents for *physical interaction*. Chats on whatsapp or zoom simply don't cut it.
Marco.
sounds easy;)
Lol - I want to know what the "slight element of fear" is and how many volts are involved?:D
Go on Martin, you KNOW you want to taser the wee fuckers, so don't stifle the urge....!:lol:
Marco.
Also i think flu deaths this year may well be down by a fair bit...time will tell on that.
Yeah, you'd think all that hand cleasnsing, sanitising and mask wearing is got to have an effect, wouldn't you?;)
Simply because the general public, and especially kids, have gone from one minute being total germ-spreading, filthy bastards, to the next, adhering daily to surgical standards of cleanliness!!
Marco.
Lol - I want to know what the "slight element of fear" is and how many volts are involved?:D
Marco.
You don't specify, you just keep them guessing! I mean at 8 years old, they are old enough to understand there might be consequences but not old enough to grasp what they might be.
We were always shit-scared of my grandad. He never raised his hand to us but always gave the impression that he wouldn't hesitate to do so if necessary. That was enough.
Yeah, you'd think all that hand cleasnsing, sanitising and mask wearing is got to have an effect, wouldn't you?;)
Simply because the general public, and especially kids, have gone from one minute being total germ-spreading, filthy bastards, to the next, adhering daily to surgical standards of cleanliness!!
Marco.
was more that a lot of the weaker in the country have already been culled tbh, but the extra awareness of virus etc wont do any harm i guess. also more folk will get inoculated im guessing
Also, parents are not qualified teachers so as well as the mental health aspect, a year of reduced education has a massive impact on their intellectual progression at that age, as does not mixing with other children to their ability to socialise well.
The fact is that if you want to keep schools shut you have to accept that parents of children under the age of about 14 will only be able to do minimal work (assuming they can do their jobs from home at all) which risks the economy. This is the trade off that the government is dealing with.
Again, spot on (both paragraphs):thumbsup:
Marco.
sounds easy;)
It was easy. My brother and his wife were astonished. Doesn't work for them as they've already created an environment where the children think they are the centre of their universe. But I don't see them that much so I'm still an unknown quantity.
was more that a lot of the weaker in the country have already been culled tbh, but the extra awareness of virus etc wont do any harm i guess. also more folk will get inoculated im guessing
Yeah, to an extent, although there's still many more left that the virus could potentially kill, which is why we have to learn from the mistakes made before in not adequately isolating and protecting the most vulnerable of our citizens. We simply can't have the disaster that happened in care homes earlier this year repeating itself again.
No, I think the point I made with mass-cleansing/sanitation is valid. Quite simply, if you're grossly reducing the spread of germs like that, in all public areas on a national level, which has been the case for the last 6 months or so, and continuing to do that, including promoting the wearing of masks, then it's going to have an impact on the spread of germ-related infections, colds and flus included.
Therefore, I'm expecting to see a reduction in that this winter, compared with normal, which will only help us deal better with a 'second wave' of Covid, and so contrary to the doom and gloom 'panic merchants' worrying about half the population being ill or dying in hospitals this winter, I'm confident it will be a non-event; certainly nothing of major concern.
Marco.
It was easy. My brother and his wife were astonished. Doesn't work for them as they've already created an environment where the children think they are the centre of their universe. But I don't see them that much so I'm still an unknown quantity.
indeed but you aint the parent; more the outside teacher.. the james mason piano teacher type.. once that wears off.... and as a parent it will unless your a bit of a monster to them:D
Yeah, to an extent, although there's still many more left that the virus could potentially kill, which is why we have to learn from the mistakes made before in not adequately isolating and protecting the most vulnerable of our citizens. We simply can't have the disaster that happened in care homes earlier this year repeating itself again.
No, I think the point I made with mass-cleansing/sanitation is valid. Quite simply, if you're grossly reducing the spread of germs like that, in all public areas on a national level, which has been the case for the last 6 months or so, and continuing to do that, including promoting the wearing of masks, then it's going to have an impact on the spread of germ-related infections, colds and flus included.
Therefore, I'm expecting to see a reduction in that this winter, compared with normal, which will only help us deal better with a 'second wave' of Covid, and so contrary to the doom and gloom 'panic merchants' worrying about half the population being ill or dying in hospitals this winter, I'm confident it will be a non-event; certainly nothing of major concern.
Marco.
sure i said that.. both will help enormously i think. but just because older at risk folk are very wary doesnt make them frightened or cowed. it is just most older folk have a better ability to be lonely as they are more used to it, and dont see the point in risking all without good c ause.
like yesterday my daughter had to rush one of the kids up to hospital for tests so i offered to go to her house and look after the other, even tho there was a risk as they have all been down with some virus.. calculated needs over just doing something to satisfy a need
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 10:24
Reference has been made to R0 the epidemiological variable used in pandemic modelling. Although R0 is an average value for the number of people an infected person subsequently infects, it is useful in modelling transmission. Consider this highly simplified illustration. Best knowledge is that incubation once infected takes around 5 days, and that an infected person may be infectious for around 6 days. Even if we assume (optimistically) a period of 2 weeks between infection cycles, that still allows for 26 infection cycles in a single year. Current estimates for England put R0 at around unity, maybe a little more. I am not sure that many appreciate the consequences of a small rise in R0 from say 1.1 to 1.2. Do the maths based upon 26 cycles for the two values (i.e. R0 ^26). Shocking isn't it.
Of course, spikes in infection will prompt harsher lockdown measures, thereby bringing R0 down. However, even 4 cycles at R0 =1.2 means a doubling of infections.
Reference has been made to R0 the epidemiological variable used in pandemic modelling. Although R0 is an average value for the number of people an infected person subsequently infects, it is useful in modelling transmission. Consider this highly simplified illustration. Best knowledge is that incubation once infected takes around 5 days, and that an infected person may be infectious for around 6 days. Even if we assume (optimistically) a period of 2 weeks between infection cycles, that still allows for 26 infection cycles in a single year. Current estimates for England put R0 at around unity, maybe a little more. I am not sure that many appreciate the consequences of a small rise in R0 from say 1.1 to 1.2. Do the maths based upon 26 cycles for the two values (i.e. R0 ^26). Shocking isn't it.
Of course, spikes in infection will prompt harsher lockdown measures, thereby bringing R0 down. However, even 4 cycles at R0 =1.2 means a doubling of infections.
true but its not so relevant at the low rates we have at moment as the clusters are being found and dealt with as best they currently can. also as testing is much higher, and false pos are aplenty, we will find more cases. as said earlier, hospital admissions are steady and low. if the rates go up too high then that may become an issue again.
indeed but you aint the parent; more the outside teacher.. the james mason piano teacher type.. once that wears off.... and as a parent it will unless your a bit of a monster to them:D
The problem is, we've had decades now where ridiculous levels of 'mamby-pambying' has become the norm, in terms of how many 'parents' today bring up their kids, instead of sometimes introducing much needed 'tough love', and so to break that cycle, and introduce reasonable measures of discipline, and make that acceptable in today's soft-assed, politically correct-obsessed world, would be very difficult to nigh on impossible.
Marco.
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 10:39
It gives me no pleasure to say it but R0 will almost certainly climb in the coming months, and perhaps catastrophically so if we see a large scale return to school and any relaxation of containment efforts.
Geoff, have you always been a glass half-empty kind of guy?;)
Marco.
indeed but you aint the parent; more the outside teacher.. the james mason piano teacher type.. once that wears off.... and as a parent it will unless your a bit of a monster to them:D
yes, much easier to do it if you are not the parent, unless you establish some 'distance' right from the start by not indulging the child. This is now seen as 'bad parenting' when in fact it does the child no favours. IMO it is easy to spot the difference in adults, those that were 'befriended' by their parents turn out immature and self-entitled.
The line between adult and child gets blurred. When my brothers and I were young people would come to see my parents, aunties, uncles, friends, they would sit and chat, we would never disturb them. We had no interest in disturbing them, there was nothing there for us. We entertained ourselves. Now if I go to my brothers we can't get 5 minutes to have a chat without the children bugging us, demanding attention. Just completely wrong.
Personally I don't really like children which is why I never had any. They seem to be either dim and annoying or precocious and annoying. I'm very much from the 'seen and not heard' school, me.
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 11:14
Geoff, have you always been a glass half-empty kind of guy?;)
Marco.
Donald Trump has spent much of this year denying the severity of the pandemic and refusing to take a strong leadership role in its containment. Hoping for a good outcome and taking no action to promote one is not helpful it is irresponsible. Actions should be based on evidence informed policy and practice. I have spent my adult life as an economist working in international health. I am always optimistic about outcomes when decisions are based upon evidence and science. I am therefore "a glass is 50% full" type of guy! Warning that poor decisions will lead to poor outcomes is not pessimism it is common sense. Unfortunately, having studied epidemiology I am all too aware of the mechanics of the pandemic. I hope I am wrong but we shall see where we are by spring of next year.
donny needs to win or he will be behind bars...so win he will, by hook and crook.
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 11:34
donny needs to win or he will be behind bars...so win he will, by hook and crook.
He is certainly prepared to stoop to the lowest and most underhand acts. However, if verified, his alleged comments about war dead and military service may even persuade his "base" to jump ship! :steam:
I am praying that the American public will kick his arse out of the White House in November so that an independent judicial enquiry can finally discover what shit Russia has on him!
anthonyTD
05-09-2020, 11:50
Anyone care to show me exactly what Trump said about this :scratch:
However, if verified, his alleged comments about war dead and military service may even persuade his "base" to jump ship! :steam:
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 11:52
Anyone care to show me exactly what Trump said about this :scratch:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54034707
Anyone care to show me exactly what Trump said about this :scratch:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54034707
Stratmangler
05-09-2020, 12:17
He is certainly prepared to stoop to the lowest and most underhand acts. However, if verified, his alleged comments about war dead and military service may even persuade his "base" to jump ship! :steam:
I am praying that the American public will kick his arse out of the White House in November so that an independent judicial enquiry can finally discover what shit Russia has on him!
The American public didn't give him a popular vote win last time around ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54034707
The key there is "reported to have said". His ill-advised 'protestations', much like the bleach fiasco. are regularly and deliberately manipulated/misinterpreted and portrayed in the most negative light, by the anti-Trump/Republican, American (and British) media. That's what happens when you watch too much CNN or BBC news!!
Show me a video of him saying those EXACT words, in the context suggested [minus any 'selective editing'], and I'll consider it then;)
Marco.
it appears you only have to win the swing states to win.. i expect him to do so.
The key there is "reported to have said". His 'protestations', much like the bleach fiasco. are regularly deliberately manipulated/misinterpreted and portrayed in the most negative light by the anti-Trump/Republican, American (and British) media. That's what happens when you watch too much CNN or BBC news!!
Show me a video of him saying those EXACT words, in the context suggested [minus any 'selective editing'], and I'll consider it then;)
Marco.
and that is the attitude of trump voters that will mean no matter what he does he will win.
As far as I'm concerned, it's not an "attitude", simply the facts, and being unwilling to swallow as gospel every bit of negative publicity aimed at the man! It's called lateral thinking and being unwilling to be brainwashed by a rather obvious smear campaign [although admittedly aided often by his own stupidity];)
Marco.
The key there is "reported to have said". His ill-advised 'protestations', much like the bleach fiasco. are regularly and deliberately manipulated/misinterpreted and portrayed in the most negative light, by the anti-Trump/Republican, American (and British) media. That's what happens when you watch too much CNN or BBC news!!
Show me a video of him saying those EXACT words, in the context suggested [minus any 'selective editing'], and I'll consider it then;)
Marco.
I know it's a joke isn't it? People just believe what they want to. If you're someone's enemy you can claim that you heard them say anything you want and all their other enemies will right away accept it as the truth without question. But say you heard one of their friends say something bad and immediately it's 'Oh they would never say that, you're making it up.'
I sort of hope he does get in again even though he is a complete dick. It doesn't make any substantial difference to anything but will really piss off all the 'woke', 'progressive' types. Worth it just for that.
Pigmy Pony
05-09-2020, 13:45
yes, much easier to do it if you are not the parent, unless you establish some 'distance' right from the start by not indulging the child. This is now seen as 'bad parenting' when in fact it does the child no favours. IMO it is easy to spot the difference in adults, those that were 'befriended' by their parents turn out immature and self-entitled.
The line between adult and child gets blurred. When my brothers and I were young people would come to see my parents, aunties, uncles, friends, they would sit and chat, we would never disturb them. We had no interest in disturbing them, there was nothing there for us. We entertained ourselves. Now if I go to my brothers we can't get 5 minutes to have a chat without the children bugging us, demanding attention. Just completely wrong.
Personally I don't really like children which is why I never had any. They seem to be either dim and annoying or precocious and annoying. I'm very much from the 'seen and not heard' school, me.
:lol: Pretty much describes my childhood, and that was fine by me.
Meanwhile, a glimpse of Macca's next job:
https://youtu.be/q9PNoYSKx0A
anthonyTD
05-09-2020, 13:53
Indeed, which is why i asked the question!
The key there is "reported to have said". His ill-advised 'protestations', much like the bleach fiasco. are regularly and deliberately manipulated/misinterpreted and portrayed in the most negative light, by the anti-Trump/Republican, American (and British) media. That's what happens when you watch too much CNN or BBC news!!
Show me a video of him saying those EXACT words, in the context suggested [minus any 'selective editing'], and I'll consider it then;)
Marco.
Quality!:D
Is that you back from Loch Fyne now, or have you just popped in to see how the mad house was doing in your absence?:eyebrows:
Marco.
Landloper
05-09-2020, 14:06
1] Pandemic?
2] Were I a child again I'd choose the 'flu over a return to the oppression of the 'education' system. Teachers: another of the many enemies I have faced in life.
Indeed, which is why i asked the question!
well he called john mccain a loser for getting captured so it fits...
https://youtu.be/7k1ajHAeXMU
1] Pandemic?
2] Were I a child again I'd choose the 'flu over a return to the oppression of the 'education' system. Teachers: another of the many enemies I have faced in life.
Asked my eldest (ten year old) nephew if he missed going to school. 'Not really' he says. So at least I know he's normal.
Sherwood
05-09-2020, 14:28
Apparently, several reputable journalists including a Fox News correspondent have corroborated the original story in The Atlantic. This story was written on the basis of reports by four anonymous sources. Yes, it would be better if these sources were willing to be identified but given the abuse received by other whistleblowers their reticence is understandable. Even Dr Fauci and his family are receiving death threats from Trump stooges.
I suspect that as the election nears, that one or more of these anonymous sources will come forward. If as Trump has inferred in his denial rant, one of the sources is John Kelly, then I think his goose is cooked.
Pigmy Pony
05-09-2020, 15:30
Quality!:D
Is that you back from Loch Fyne now, or have you just popped in to see how the mad house was doing in your absence?:eyebrows:
Marco.
Yep, back home now, 3 days in Cairndow, 2 days in Callander, and one night 'how the other half lives' bed breakfast and evening meal at a nice country house in the Eden valley. My batteries are now recharged :)
You all have been busy on here this last week, looks like you're ready for the voice of reason to return ;)
Filterlab
05-09-2020, 15:33
western developed countries especially where they have large concentrated pops, only got away with such a low rate because of the shutdown tho(or thats the consensus)...
Well, as the UK has had the fourth highest amount of deaths by country, and one of the others being the US, I’d tend to disagree. It does show that the potential of COVID as a killer is actually quite low in comparison to other forms of death.
well a high % of our deaths were in care homes.. that was a disaster waiting to happen and imo the govt and health boards caused much of it by panic and in disregard for safety. but that will no doubt be airbrushed away
anthonyTD
05-09-2020, 16:07
Again, from watching that, IMO his words are taken out of context, he called him a loser mainly for bad mouthing him, and for refering to the 15,000 people who turned out to support Trump as crazies!
But i will agree to disagree, because of the fine line being walked by both parties! :)
well he called john mccain a loser for getting captured so it fits...
https://youtu.be/7k1ajHAeXMU
Indeed, exactly as I interpreted it. Context is everything.
It's amazing what biased minds will find, when they *want* to find it!;)
Marco.
Clearly referring to the failed presidential run. Not possible to 'interpret it in any other way.
His opponents just don't seem to realise they do themselves no favours with this sort of blatant misrepresentation. It makes them look desperate. And when they accuse Trump of misrepresentation it makes them look like hypocrites too.
Presumably they think they have to fight fire with fire. They're wrong. You play down at Trump's level he'll beat you every time because he's been doing it all his life and he's much better at it.
No. Until a safe and effective vaccine is produced and is widely adopted, or more effective therapeutics developed, the challenge is to contain the epidemic. There is ample evidence globally that when students return to school or uni without effective preventative measures that a spike in infection occurs soon after. The UK has had one of the poorest global responses to the pandemic but it has managed to "flatten the curve" somewhat. Despite this, we remain in a highly precarious position and it is entirely possible that we could see a return to previous infection levels or higher. We will shortly see the annual increase in morbidity due to flu, pneumonia and other respiratory infections, which stacked upon covid infections will present an unprecedented and overwhelming winter burden on the NHS.
Whilst there are costs and consequences in keeping children from school, the alternative is far more hazardous. Distance learning is not ideal but it is workable. Furthermore, there is no reason why kids or adults should not leave their homes providing that they socially distance and wear masks when in close proximity to other people. I still cannot understand why the public have not yet fully grasped the potential for huge mortality and long term chronic illness that covid presents. Even if it meant that all schoolchildren lost a full year of schooling (a highly unlikely and unnecessary possibility) that would be a modest price to pay for the potential health gains.
It should be noted there's no recorded case of a child giving their parents covid19 to date. And children don't die from it except in very rare incidences; and only children that could easily be killed by other common bugs essentially. It's not a threat to children or the parents of the children if they go to school. The threat is in the absurd curriculums now being taught where they are institutionalizing political movements and making them learn moron-math (that makes them basically have to go to college).
It's not paranoia. It is a highly infectious virus with a relatively high case fatality rate. Also, as we are gradually learning, the disease may be responsible for a plethora of long term chronic morbidity too.
Yes, it is important that kids go back to school, but only when it is safe to do so. Now is not the time.
The full economic costs of the virus are not yet known but will be immense. Many members of this forum are retired or approaching retirement so they will not be paying off the accumulated debt that successive governments have built up over decades and which covid has greatly added to. That will fall to the so called "millenials" and their offspring. The phrase, "the new normal" is widely used but I doubt if many of us appreciate how radically that this pandemic and the ones that will follow, must change the fundamentals of society and the way we live. Frankly, a delayed return to school is to my mind the least of our concerns.
I can't speak for other countries but in the US it's turned out to be a significantly lower death rate than the flu actually, when not counting really bad comorbidities and car accidents etc. The CDC's low estimate is that for every 1 person tested 10 more people have it. I work in health care and I think that's a very low estimate because people with covid19 are not testing positive all day long. Even the antibody tests don't seem very accurate. Anyways for us that's a low end accountable of 60m people, and could easily be so much higher (maybe even twice). And they've also said that only 6% of our 182k deaths are direct covid deaths. That works out to 0.0183% mortality rate.
Also can tell you that hospitals are having way less deaths now, and some that are using the hydroxloie whatever stuff, are having huge success despite the media's claims about it.
Donald Trump has spent much of this year denying the severity of the pandemic and refusing to take a strong leadership role in its containment. Hoping for a good outcome and taking no action to promote one is not helpful it is irresponsible. Actions should be based on evidence informed policy and practice. I have spent my adult life as an economist working in international health. I am always optimistic about outcomes when decisions are based upon evidence and science. I am therefore "a glass is 50% full" type of guy! Warning that poor decisions will lead to poor outcomes is not pessimism it is common sense. Unfortunately, having studied epidemiology I am all too aware of the mechanics of the pandemic. I hope I am wrong but we shall see where we are by spring of next year.
Hogwash. Could Trump have responded earlier? Sure but it's not that simple. The reality is he actually did get ventilators and many things going. Even some of his enemies have conceded to the fact he did in fact deliver on a surprising amount of stuff he claimed. Our "death rate" is no more than combined death rates if you group euro countries together to equal out population. And promote what? Nonsense like masks? Right now it's all political blabber. People in the US think covid will go away after the election and it's no longer useful to anyone politically. We've got bigger issues now.
BTW the current outlook is Trump wins in November by a landslide. People are scared of the riots. People like police. People are fleeing democratic cities, you can tell because they're buying the hell out of everything that isn't there, in real estate. People have become wise to the fact that all the race bating in the news has been a bunch of fictional lies... Democrats are buying guns now. The opposition is the pathetic attempt to blame riots on Trump because "look this is Trumps America, so long as he's president people will riot because BECAUSE". He's a symbol of extremist hate because BECAUSE - no one has any really good reasons for all of this except blind opposition -and even less so a plan for the future. The opposition destroyed themselves with a candidate you can't trust or believe is capable, and didn't address anyone's major concerns at all as of late. They ran the DNC and didn't mention the riots at all, when the people who went were there to hear about that because they're super scared.
anthonyTD
05-09-2020, 16:33
Tend to agree with much of the thinking behind your post here Jeremy! :)
It should be noted there's no recorded case of a child giving their parents covid19 to date. And children don't die from it except in very rare incidences; and only children that could easily be killed by other common bugs essentially. It's not a threat to children or the parents of the children if they go to school. The threat is in the absurd curriculums now being taught where they are institutionalizing political movements and making them learn moron-math (that makes them basically have to go to college).
I can't speak for other countries but in the US it's turned out to be a significantly lower death rate than the flu actually, when not counting really bad comorbidities and car accidents etc. The CDC's low estimate is that for every 1 person tested 10 more people have it. I work in health care and I think that's a very low estimate because people with covid19 are not testing positive all day long. Even the antibody tests don't seem very accurate. Anyways for us that's a low end accountable of 60m people, and could easily be so much higher (maybe even twice). And they've also said that only 6% of our 182k deaths are direct covid deaths. That works out to 0.0183% mortality rate.
Also can tell you that hospitals are having way less deaths now, and some that are using the hydroxloie whatever stuff, are having huge success despite the media's claims about it.
Hogwash. Could Trump have responded earlier? Sure but it's not that simple. The reality is he actually did get ventilators and many things going. Even some of his enemies have conceded to the fact he did in fact deliver on a surprising amount of stuff he claimed. Our "death rate" is no more than combined death rates if you group euro countries together to equal out population. And promote what? Nonsense like masks? Right now it's all political blabber. People in the US think covid will go away after the election and it's no longer useful to anyone politically. We've got bigger issues now.
BTW the current outlook is Trump wins in November by a landslide. People are scared of the riots. People like police. People are fleeing democratic cities, you can tell because they're buying the hell out of everything that isn't there, in real estate. People have become wise to the fact that all the race bating in the news has been a bunch of fictional lies... Democrats are buying guns now. The opposition is the pathetic attempt to blame riots on Trump because "look this is Trumps America, so long as he's president people will riot because BECAUSE". He's a symbol of extremist hate because BECAUSE - no one has any really good reasons for all of this except blind opposition -and even less so a plan for the future. The opposition destroyed themselves with a candidate you can't trust or believe is capable, and didn't address anyone's major concerns at all as of late. They ran the DNC and didn't mention the riots at all, when the people who went were there to hear about that because they're super scared.
Lawrence001
05-09-2020, 17:02
4 years old I can understand but an 8 year old should be able to sit and read a book and write an essay unsupervised. Okay I don't have young children but in my own childhood during school holidays we never had any adult supervision. We would read (mostly comics but also proper books - Enid Blyton et al) or play with Lego, or, weather permitting, play cricket or football in the back yard.
I don't really understand what has changed that children of 8 years old need constant parental attention. On a Saturday morning my parents would have a lie in, but we would be up early to watch the children's programmes on TV, we'd boil the kettle and make tea and light the gas grill (required pulling a stool over to the cooker in order to be able to reach) and make toast.
Now parents tell me they cannot sleep in at weekends as the children are in their bedroom at 6 am jumping on the bed and getting them up. We would never in a million years have contemplated doing that! Aside from the threat of physical punishment we also understood that our parents were up early and worked hard in the week and deserved to be left undisturbed on weekends.Yes most of the time was spent with the younger one leaving the older one to get on with the work set by the school but it's hard to explain new maths to an 8yo and then sit with them to help while you've got a 4yo bored of whatever they're doing.
Sent from my HRY-LX1 using Tapatalk
Yes most of the time was spent with the younger one leaving the older one to get on with the work set by the school but it's hard to explain new maths to an 8yo and then sit with them to help while you've got a 4yo bored of whatever they're doing.
Sent from my HRY-LX1 using Tapatalk
I can appreciate that must be a task requiring far more patience than I have. I do look upon parents with awe I have to say. There is no way I could do it.
Tend to agree with much of the thinking behind your post here Jeremy! :)
Thanks. I'm trying to be a little bit pragmatic with everything. I don't want to base my outlook on the validity of statements that are nothing more than a tweet.
Mikeandvan
05-09-2020, 21:34
Attitudes towards the threat of Covid-19 vary widely, I visited my brother a few days ago in Wales, he has a family, whilst I just live alone (typical hifi hermit). And I was slighted nonplussed at his and his families reaction to the 'pandemic'. They were extremely vigilant, my brother seemed on edge, as he;d been cooped up for 5 months. Life for myself meanwhile hardly changed during lockdown and since. Catching the train from Hove to Wales I was among the 5% not wearing a face mask, the good thing is people can;t harass you about this as you may be one of the 'special cases'. I should add that during the last week Covid cases in Brighton & Hove number only 12, yes 12, and this is where the first case of Covid was found back in February! Should children go back to school? Should workers go back to the office? Does a bear shit in the woods?
mad-moon
05-09-2020, 22:30
Attitudes towards the threat of Covid-19 vary widely, I visited my brother a few days ago in Wales, he has a family, whilst I just live alone (typical hifi hermit). And I was slighted nonplussed at his and his families reaction to the 'pandemic'. They were extremely vigilant, my brother seemed on edge, as he;d been cooped up for 5 months. Life for myself meanwhile hardly changed during lockdown and since. Catching the train from Hove to Wales I was among the 5% not wearing a face mask, the good thing is people can;t harass you about this as you may be one of the 'special cases'. I should add that during the last week Covid cases in Brighton & Hove number only 12, yes 12, and this is where the first case of Covid was found back in February! Should children go back to school? Should workers go back to the office? Does a bear shit in the woods?
this guy proclaims to be a special case too...on a train no mask says he has underlying medical conditions..he looks pretty fit to me..but hey..I could be wrong..
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=man+pepper+sprayed+on+train+for+not+weari ng+a+mask+youtube&docid=13830424133728&mid=E47567DD85FCF23C03AFE47567DD85FCF23C03AF&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=man+pepper+sprayed+on+train+for+not+weari ng+a+mask+youtube&docid=13830424133728&mid=E47567DD85FCF23C03AFE47567DD85FCF23C03AF&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
I can feel a "Scouse lives matter" campaign coming on
only lives that 'matter' are the mega rich and mega powerful... oh and marco of course:ner:
anthonyTD
06-09-2020, 10:15
:eek:
only lives that 'matter' are the mega rich and mega powerful... oh and marco of course:ner:
Here we go:
One week back and seven teachers at Samuel Ward Academy in Haverhill test positive.
Don't worry though kids don't get it :doh:
As I've said over on the Covid thread, Guy, CASES aren't necessarily a problem (indeed they could lead to an increase in herd immunity) - hospitalisations or deaths are, and fortunately so far those aren't on the increase:)
See my posts on the matter from here onwards: https://theartofsound.net/forum/showthread.php?68302-Johns-Hopkins-Medical-Centre-World-Coronavirus-infection-Map-by-Country&p=1219827#post1219827
Essentially, we need to stop focussing on CASES [after all, it follows that with more testing, you'll get more cases] *unless* they turn into something more serious!
Marco.
Early days, hopefully each of the teachers will remain just a case.
Indeed... I just want to see an end to all the unnecessary panicking, just because there are a few more cases, as it plays right into the hands of the 'powers that be', whose interests it's in to ramp up the fear factor, in order to justify implementing measures that increase their surveilling and controlling of us!
Let's all stay calm and 'keep it real':)
Marco.
Pigmy Pony
07-09-2020, 20:15
Indeed... I just want to see an end to all the unnecessary panicking, just because there are a few more cases, as it plays right into the hands of the 'powers that be', whose interests it's in to ramp up the fear factor, in order to justify implementing measures that increase their surveilling and controlling of us!
Let's all stay calm and 'keep it real':)
Marco.
The 'reality' as I see it: ramping up the fear factor, so that people are afraid to go to work, to the pub, the gym, the shops, is in no one's interest, including the governments. I believe the reality to be somewhere between what we are told and what we see around us.
I only know three people who have had it - Anita's youngest son (25) last month, who went pretty much symptom free, and a couple in their 70's back in March. Customers of mine. Wife experienced flu-like symptoms, and husband, who four months later (when I last saw him) still wasn't right. Is it possible the virus is losing its power? Can it work like that?
Pigmy Pony
07-09-2020, 20:23
I only know three people who have had it - Anita's youngest son (25) last month, who went pretty much symptom free, and a couple in their 70's back in March. Customers of mine. Wife experienced flu-like symptoms, and husband, who four months later (when I last saw him) still wasn't right. Is it possible the virus is losing its power? Can it work like that?
Marco, I see you've suggested as much in post #3889 on the other thread. It seems to me entirely possible.
The 'reality' as I see it: ramping up the fear factor, so that people are afraid to go to work, to the pub, the gym, the shops, is in no one's interest, including the governments. I believe the reality to be somewhere between what we are told and what we see around us.
Well, it depends on how you look at it. I'd agree, in terms of what's best for the economy, but I'm not sure what the government are currently more focussed on boosting: the economy or their ability to surveil/control us, and ultimately push the rolling out of some 'dodgy', rushed through, vaccine.
For me, I still suspect that the latter is the real agenda, and so it follows that if you make everyone scared, they'll be more receptive towards vaccination, in order to become 'immune from Covid' (which of course is bollocks), and also be given a ticket to move around and live more freely than those who haven't been vaccinated.
If you think about it, we keep on hearing, again and again, that the only 'real way back to normality' is when a vaccine is available, therefore it makes sense for them to create a culture of fear, in order to get what they want.
I only know three people who have had it - Anita's youngest son (25) last month, who went pretty much symptom free, and a couple in their 70's back in March. Customers of mine. Wife experienced flu-like symptoms, and husband, who four months later (when I last saw him) still wasn't right. Is it possible the virus is losing its power? Can it work like that?
Yes, and I've already said so... The virus could've mutated now into a different strain that's less virulent, but equally as contagious, and which could explain why cases are on the rise, yet so far, hospitalisations or deaths (thankfully) aren't.
If that's true, then it would be the best news ever!:)
Marco.
Marco, I see you've suggested as much in post #3889 on the other thread. It seems to me entirely possible.
Yup, just replied:)
Marco.
Sherwood
11-09-2020, 20:09
A week is a long time in pandemics and politics. In fact, a mere 6 days after my last post and unfortunately my fears are being realised.
In England R0 has begun to climb again, and this is before school and university students have returned to face to face teaching. It is possible that R0 might be as high as 1.2 already.
In the USA, Bob Woodward's latest book provides recorded statements from Trump in early February that he knew that Covid 19 could be transmitted by aerosol particles, that it had a much higher death rate than influenza, and that it did infect children as well as adults. In fact, Trump went on to say that he purposefully played down the severity of the pandemic.
The projections for further USA and UK deaths in the coming months are depressing.
It's not a higher death rate than influenza per the numbers now, it's just a much higher infection rate. And children get it, sure, but they don't transmit it and they don't have symptoms.
If you play it down to keep people calm you did bad... If you don't then people say you insight fear. Can't win that one.
My boys 26, but if he were still at school I'd say NO.
He stays at Home.
Wish I had the confidence to drop him off, but do YOU trust what our Government is saying?
Sherwood
11-09-2020, 22:44
It's not a higher death rate than influenza per the numbers now, it's just a much higher infection rate. And children get it, sure, but they don't transmit it and they don't have symptoms.
If you play it down to keep people calm you did bad... If you don't then people say you insight fear. Can't win that one.
This is incorrect. The case fatality rate is much higher. Also, children do transmit it and even if they do not suffer the same levels of morbidity and mortality than adults they are not immune to its adverse effects. Evidence suggests they may have a much higher viral load than adults. Just wait to see how infectious children and young adults can be when they go back to their classes!
If you knew anything about public health the first rule is to be honest with the public. Make clear what the risks are and what steps the public and government can take to address the problem. If Trump is so concerned with ensuring calm and avoiding fear, why is almost every rally full of how the USA will be doomed if Biden wins?
You need to have worked in a school/taught to understand the risk to teachers:
Without shift working/reduced timetables there will be classes of 30+ pupils in state secondary schools (in rooms where it will be impossible to have "social distancing")
Corridors are generally narrow - staggered lesson timings will help to reduce contact, but how long will virus/droplets persist in narrow and poorly ventilated walkways?
Teenagers "live forever", very few will give a shit about wearing masks let alone washing hands (number of times that I have told pupils to wash the snot off their hands after they have caught a sneeze, only to be looked at as if I were mad as they wiped the snot on to their clothes/pencil case/bench).
Large numbers of pupils used to congregate in the toilets while they ate their sandwiches - good luck with policing that one, unless you want to be accused of being a "paedo" (pupil speak)
The list could just go on, thank goodness that I took early retirement :)
Interesting that US has started to notice a rise in the number of deaths of teachers since starting back at the start of August. Young people can have the virus (they may not suffer as badly from infection) the virus does not "decide" that a young person is not a suitable surface/host to infect.
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