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Thread: Petition for clean Brexit referendum

  1. #81
    Join Date: Aug 2009

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    Quote Originally Posted by ff1d1l View Post
    It is of course impossible to know how the economy would have fared in the absence of a vote to leave the EU as we have no observable counterfactual. ."
    .
    It is 'of course', making this absolutely worthless as far as proving a point goes.

    In any case most of us who voted out are prepared to accept any associated economic issues; some things are more important than money.

    If we'd had a referendum prior to Maastricht, or if Heath had not lied about the nature and intentions of the EEC prior to the original referendum we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.

    Leaving the EU is the start of fixing what is broken and that's not going to be without some associated pain.
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  2. #82
    montesquieu Guest

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    On the virtue signalling issue BTW I had an interesting conversation last week. My wife is an academic and I was picking her up from a post-graduation 'do' where the lecturers get pissed before going off for the summer.

    I found myself with several senior history academics, a professor in the business department and a retired philosophy professor, husband of one of the historians.

    I brought up Brexit myself and it was fascinating to watch this group slowly realise that they were all to varying degrees in favour of Brexit - something they had never admitted to each other as it's not a 'safe' view to hold in academic circles.

    Pro-Brexit and other more conservative views are simply not safe to express in academic circles these days, in case individuals expressing them get labelled and targeted - sad but true.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by montesquieu View Post
    Since the referendum I've come close to cancelling my subscription to The Economist, something I've had runing for over 30 years. The reason is that it has ceased to attempt to report on the Brexit debate with anything close to impartiality.
    I agree, The Economist has sacrificed its reputation on the altar of Brexit. Very sad to see.
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  4. #84
    Join Date: Feb 2015

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    The Economist has sacrificed its reputation on the altar of Brexit.
    Time will tell.
    Last edited by rdpx; 20-07-2018 at 11:56.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by montesquieu View Post
    ...it has ceased to attempt to report on the Brexit debate with anything close to impartiality. The same applies to the FT.
    The FT link was to an article from 2009 that was about how all of the economists who had been predicting the crash had been ignored or sidelined. I posted it in response to your declaration that nobody had predicted that crash, so why should we pay any attention now.



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  6. #86
    Join Date: Aug 2009

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    Some economists did predict that crash, I predicted it and I'm not an economist.

    To me this is a good example of how seriously the predictions of economists are taken in the real world. I.e not seriously at all. There's a reason for that.
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  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by montesquieu View Post
    The doom meisters need to acknowledge that the EU (the Commission mainly but also other actors including some politicians) is trying as hard as it can to manipulate sentiment and that its statements should be read entirely in that light.
    Can we take it from this that you are saying that anything negative we hear about the possible consequences of Brexit are still just a part of Project Fear, and should be ignored?

  8. #88
    montesquieu Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by rdpx View Post
    The FT link was to an article from 2009 that was about how all of the economists who had been predicting the crash had been ignored or sidelined. I posted it in response to your declaration that nobody had predicted that crash, so why should we pay any attention now.



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    I cancelled my FT subscription so was unable to get to the link, as I mentioned I am thinking of doing the same with The Economist.

    At the time of the crash it was fairly clear there was a massive global housing bubble at the very least (I sold up end of 2006 - fortuitous location move as it happens, rather than foresight) but I elected not to buy in again till 2013 as I thought 2007 prices were utter madness - a gut feeling that was proved correct. Though few imagined the extent to which worthless mainly but not exclusively sub-prime US mortgages had been re-sold and securitised around the world, or the impact the bursting of the housing bubble would have.

    People have been predicting chaos coming out of China in similar fashion, the same inidicators are flashing red and the Chinese central bank is working overtime to contain it (succesfully up till now) though once again I suspect it will take the world 'by surprise' and it's likely Trump will get the blame.

  9. #89
    montesquieu Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by rdpx View Post
    Can we take it from this that you are saying that anything negative we hear about the possible consequences of Brexit are still just a part of Project Fear, and should be ignored?
    Of course there will be negative consequences and these should have been stated clearly. The argument for Brexit is a long-term one, I can't see how it will fail to have impact on manufacturing supply chains and consequently on investment and jobs in some of those sectors, and the short-term pain associated with that may appear to be severe as the sector is very good at making a noise and the media will report it with glee.

    Some banking jobs have been lost though it's worth noting that more have been created than have moved away in the interim - that's to be expected. Equally though ask anyone who knows Frankfurt (or Dublin for that matter, for different reasons), it's not exactly a brilliant place to live compared to London if you are a wealthy banker, especially from a family perspective. These things do matter.

    All in all though, live outside the EU is perfectly possible and some things - food for example - will be cheaper if we move away from compulsorily subsidising French and Italian rural lifestyles, which is what the ruinously expensive CAP is all about!

    As it happens I would have had more respect for the Scottish Nationalists if they had owned up to the (potentially far more serious and longer term) economic consequences of secession from the UK and said 'it's worth it to chart our own destiny'. But they didn't (for obvious reasons).

  10. #90
    Join Date: Feb 2015

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    Quote Originally Posted by montesquieu View Post
    People have been predicting chaos coming out of China in similar fashion, the same inidicators are flashing red and the Chinese central bank is working overtime to contain it (succesfully up till now) though once again I suspect it will take the world 'by surprise' and it's likely Trump will get the blame.
    I am a little confused now as to what your position is. Do you mind if I recap what I think you have said?:

    A. In 2008 it was "fairly clear" that there was a housing bubble, but no one predicted the crash. Because no-one predicted that crash, we should not listen to the warnings that Brexit will set back the UK economy?

    B. There is a looming global economic crisis that will originate in China, but warnings about it are being ignored, and when it happens Donald Trump will be scapegoated for it.

    C. We should be paying attention to some warnings (eg about China) but not others (eg about Brexit). Also because there were no economists who predicted the 2008 crash, we shouldn't actually pay attention to any warnings at all? (Martin takes this further and seems to say warnings from economists should never be taken seriously)

    D. Anything said by anyone in the EU should be discounted because they have a vested interest in making us think it will all go very badly for us if we leave.

    I apologise if this is a bit garbled, but I am really trying to understand your position here. Am I close?

    EDIT DUE TO CROSS POSTING::

    I just saw that you replied before this post, which i did not see. From that post I understand that you further believe that:

    i] The negative effects to industry are being grossly exaggerated by the sectors involved
    ii] Bankers will not leave London because it is a great place to live (this appears to be regardless of how the final agreement affects their ability to actually perform their work)
    iii] Food will be cheaper after Brexit because we no longer will have to subsidise French and Italian farmers


    https://www.gov.uk/government/public...-and-uk-supply


    Please excuse any confusion caused by my missing your previous response!
    Last edited by rdpx; 20-07-2018 at 14:13. Reason: cross-posting

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