Maplins in trouble

[Barry]

The high street is dying because customers want cheap goods and that usually means on-line shopping.

[Macca]

The high street is dying because customers want cheap goods and that usually means on-line shopping.

Yes. The high street shops would still be closing even if the economy was booming. The world is changing, like it or not. I predict even the bookmakers will be going eventually. Ten years, maybe.

[Sherwood]

There is no single factor in the decline of the high street retailer. Yes, the internet is partly responsible for the decline of electrical retailers. However, the range of electrical products these days is so broad, even in a single category, that there is no way that a single store could carry that much stock. People are used to wide choice, not only in terms of the product, but also the colour it comes in.

In terms of supermarkets, no small high street shop can compete with the large out of town megastores for choice or for price. Of course, these same companies have seen a niche market in so called "metro" stores, but the viability of these depends upon the economies of scale that the parent company affords.

Parking is a big issue, both in terms of price and accessibility: in some locations one can be driving around for 30 minutes or longer before finding a parking space, and then facing big charges for parking. I daresay that my village is somewhat unrepresentative in having ample free parking in the High Street. Of course, that has not stopped the closure of many stores. Only this year, a large corner street hardware store has closed after 120 years continuous trading. The cinema was lost to fire decades ago and was never replaced. Aside from a single small co-op store, a greengrocer, bakery, barber, and butcher, the village is dominated by fast food stores and so called "bargain" stores. Oh, and a bookmaker!

Geoff

[Macca]

TThe cinema was lost to fire decades ago and was never replaced. Aside from a single small co-op store, a greengrocer, bakery, barber, and butcher, the village is dominated by fast food stores and so called "bargain" stores. Oh, and a bookmaker!

Geoff

Supermarkets killed the butchers, bakers, grocers, greengrocers and petrol stations. The retail parks killed the small electrical and white goods stores, the toyshops, sports shops, all the remaining independents. If the cachement area is wealthy enough you'll have a specialist grocer or butcher, maybe.

But the internet will kill almost everything. At some point even the charity shops will all be solely on line. I can buy on Amazon, get it delivered next day to reception, at my desk by 1500 hrs. It's not the price, which may or may not be cheaper than a shop, it is the convenience. Why would I ever go to a shop for it? The retail parks will be next. Food will survive, clothes might survive, not much else will.

I agree there are other factors at play than just the internet. I'm arguing that the effect of the internet is so strong it makes any other factor irrelevant.

I assume you are also familiar with E.M Forster's short story, 'The Machine Stops'?

[Sherwood]

Supermarkets killed the butchers, bakers, grocers, greengrocers and petrol stations. The retail parks killed the small electrical and white goods stores, the toyshops, sports shops, all the remaining independents. If the cachement area is wealthy enough you'll have a specialist grocer or butcher, maybe.

But the internet will kill almost everything. At some point even the charity shops will all be solely on line. I can buy on Amazon, get it delivered next day to reception, at my desk by 1500 hrs. It's not the price, which may or may not be cheaper than a shop, it is the convenience. Why would I ever go to a shop for it? The retail parks will be next. Food will survive, clothes might survive, not much else will.

I agree there are other factors at play than just the internet. I'm arguing that the effect of the internet is so strong it makes any other factor irrelevant.

I assume you are also familiar with E.M Forster's short story, 'The Machine Stops'?

Not sure that I see the point you are making in referring to Forster's sci-fi novella, other than the concentration of provider power.

I think it is important to draw a distinction between the internet per se and companies like Amazon. In many respects, Amazon is nothing more than a modern variant on Sears Roebuck which took advantage of improvements in communications in 19th century America (i.e. rail and postal systems) to market a catalogue and mail order facility that is very similar to Amazon today. By creating and dominating the mail order industry, Sears Roebuck established a market lead which it was able to maintain for decades. Amazon has achieved the same, but I do not think it will retain its market dominance for so long, and I am surprised that US anti-trust mechanisms have not yet been employed to restrain its market dominance. Perhaps this is because Amazon represents a concentration of retailing power rather than manufacturing power. Of course, eBay represents a different model. It is more an intermediary than Amazon, serving to link sellers with buyers, and has not gone the route of Amazon of setting up its own warehouses and distribution systems.

Sears Roebuck eventually evolved into a physical rather than "virtual" retailer and its stores remain a feature of most sizeable US shopping malls today. It is not inconceivable to me that Amazon might follow a similar path in the future.

Geoff

[Macca]

Not sure that I see the point you are making in referring to Forster's sci-fi novella, other than the concentration of provider power.

I think it is important to draw a distinction between the internet per se and companies like Amazon. In many respects, Amazon is nothing more than a modern variant on Sears Roebuck which took advantage of improvements in communications in 19th century America (i.e. rail and postal systems) to market a catalogue and mail order facility that is very similar to Amazon today. By creating and dominating the mail order industry, Sears Roebuck established a market lead which it was able to maintain for decades. Amazon has achieved the same, but I do not think it will retain its market dominance for so long, and I am surprised that US anti-trust mechanisms have not yet been employed to restrain its market dominance. Perhaps this is because Amazon represents a concentration of retailing power rather than manufacturing power. Of course, eBay represents a different model. It is more an intermediary than Amazon, serving to link sellers with buyers, and has not gone the route of Amazon of setting up its own warehouses and distribution systems.

Sears Roebuck eventually evolved into a physical rather than "virtual" retailer and its stores remain a feature of most sizeable US shopping malls today. It is not inconceivable to me that Amazon might follow a similar path in the future.

Geoff

You sort of got my point with the Forster reference but I was referring to the internet in general rather than Amazon specifically. If their business model proves successful in the long term you can bet that competitors will emerge. Okay, we both know it is little more than fortune telling, but we can rely on these things always finding their own level at some point.

The comparison with Sears is anachronistic I think. I'd say that if the internet had been around when Sears started would they have used that or stuck to the coupons? Buying mail order was often more hassle than just going to the shop and buying it. The main lure was that you could pay on tick. But that was before pretty much anyone could get a credit card.

The internet is a whole different ballgame. There are going to be a lot of unintended consequences.

[mikmas]

The retail parks will be next. Food will survive, clothes might survive, not much else will.

Not really convinced ..
It's all too easy to say virtual shopping is killing off the 'real' experience but for all the big name closures over the last few years (roughly since Woolworths's demise), other big chains have opened that were unheard of before.
In our local retail parks it's been Primark, The Range, Home Sense, Home Bargains and (opening soon) Hobbycraft that have taken over the vacated slots. All of these characterised by giving 'cheap and cheerful' a new allure - and all always busy when we've been in.

BHS, Toys R Us and Maplins typify the old garde ... over priced and jaded - not surprised to see the back of them.

Just waiting for some new blood to wipe away Currys/PC World ... another pricey waste of space.

[Macca]

That's now, though. I'm talking ten, fifteen years down the line maybe. Although it could happen faster than that. Larger companies are struggling to keep up as it is. There's a whole new generation out there who regard buying on the internet as normal and going to a physical shop as unusual, except for clothes and food. It's demographics, each year those generations who would never dream of buying on line are dying off. Added to that I know some elderly people who get the youngsters to do it for them. It's easier and it is often cheaper. They get that and it works for them.

if the Amazon model does not work out long term, who knows where it will go. It's fortune telling. But given the demand for housing I'm expecting most of the high streets in all the poorer areas to become mostly residential in the next ten years.

The street that joins to mine used to be a secondary high street. Chip shop, barber, electrical goods shop, newsagent, grocer, sandwich shop, tailor, general store, pub, car showroom, and a couple of other places I don't remember now. Only a handful are left. For the others you can see where they have bricked up the shop front and turned it into a house.

That trend is going to expand, is my Mystic-Meg style prediction.

[struth]

Amazon have go shops in USA and are bringing them here for food. No queuing or using a till. Smart shopping it's called

[Sherwood]

You sort of got my point with the Forster reference but I was referring to the internet in general rather than Amazon specifically. If their business model proves successful in the long term you can bet that competitors will emerge. Okay, we both know it is little more than fortune telling, but we can rely on these things always finding their own level at some point.

The comparison with Sears is anachronistic I think. I'd say that if the internet had been around when Sears started would they have used that or stuck to the coupons? Buying mail order was often more hassle than just going to the shop and buying it. The main lure was that you could pay on tick. But that was before pretty much anyone could get a credit card.

The internet is a whole different ballgame. There are going to be a lot of unintended consequences.

Hardly, if you were out in some pokey frontier town or rural hamlet in Pokeytown, Nowheresville! The catalogue and free to the door delivery (facilitated through the US Postal Service free rural delivery initiative) made it more cost-effective and convenient than going into the local general store in town. Amazon is very much in the mould of Sears Roebuck albeit separated by more than a century.

Geoff