UK Trade...the facts

[Macca]

Yeah, one of us

[Reffc]

Interesting that the IMF came out yesterday against the UK government basically saying that they've been exaggerating the financial risks (no, really?) and that whilst a Brexit might lead to a slight downturn in short term growth, it won't be that bad as long as the markets have some certainty on the Brexit arrangements. This also implies that trade deals have to be entered into. Worst case is a downturn in growth but not a full on recession under WTO rules, so even worst case, it wont be the full on doom and gloom forecast that the Tories would have us believe.

http://news.sky.com/story/1713684/im...tish-recession

Wish they'd make their minds up as only a few days previous, they were towing the big business line themselves! It just goes to show you can't trust any large organisation which may have wider agendas and a vote ought to be taken for more reasons than just the economic one.

It boils down to whether we trust that the current government has the talent and resources to effectively manage some favourable deals for us. They're finished if they can't as with a Brexit, their performance over the next year or two will have a major bearing on whether they remain electable. Not if Osborne is still in office, either way though.

Meantime, Farage continues to blot his copybook. I do wish the man would keep his mouth shut and stop pretending that he represents all of those who want to leave. He doesn't represent me, nor the views of most I speak to wanting to leave.

[Macca]

I don't know who advises Farage, but they are bloody hopeless, whoever they are.

As you say, Paul, markets and business don't like uncertainty. They will adapt whatever the outcome, but until the outcome is known things will be in flux.

[Kember]

Is it not one of the great ironies of capitalism that entrepreneurs and captains of industry self-righteously justify their rewards because of the risks they take but then they whinge about the first whisper of risk and uncertainty?

[Joe]

Is it not one of the great ironies of capitalism that entrepreneurs and captains of industry self-righteously justify their rewards because of the risks they take but then they whinge about the first whisper of risk and uncertainty?

Nah, it's just basic human nature. We are all ready to point out the mote in someone else's eye whilst ignoring the beam in our own.

Actually, one of the distinguishing features of entrepreneurs is their ability to pick themselves up, dust themselves down and start all over again when things go wrong. They like risk, because risk brings rewards. Those of us who are more risk-averse would a) probably not take chances in the first place and b) if we did take a chance, would be floored by adversity.

[Haselsh1]

I work for a massive Chinese corporate giant so I know which way I shall be voting.

[Oldpinkman]

Interesting that the IMF came out yesterday against the UK government basically saying that they've been exaggerating the financial risks (no, really?) and that whilst a Brexit might lead to a slight downturn in short term growth, it won't be that bad as long as the markets have some certainty on the Brexit arrangements. This also implies that trade deals have to be entered into. Worst case is a downturn in growth but not a full on recession under WTO rules, so even worst case, it wont be the full on doom and gloom forecast that the Tories would have us believe.

http://news.sky.com/story/1713684/im...tish-recession

Wish they'd make their minds up as only a few days previous, they were towing the big business line themselves! It just goes to show you can't trust any large organisation which may have wider agendas and a vote ought to be taken for more reasons than just the economic one.

It boils down to whether we trust that the current government has the talent and resources to effectively manage some favourable deals for us. They're finished if they can't as with a Brexit, their performance over the next year or two will have a major bearing on whether they remain electable. Not if Osborne is still in office, either way though.

Meantime, Farage continues to blot his copybook. I do wish the man would keep his mouth shut and stop pretending that he represents all of those who want to leave. He doesn't represent me, nor the views of most I speak to wanting to leave.

And little knowledge, or a lot of wishful thinking, is a dangerous thing. The imf ran 2 main scenarios. An adverse scenario based on leaving and not having any deals (most likely for reasons Michael dougan explains in his excellent 24 minute lecture from Liverpool University. ) the limited scenario you were referring to was on the basis of eea membership instead, like Norway, arranged quickly. Again I refer you to the Liverpool University video, but that means we enact all EU rules, allow free movement of people, join shengen, pay higher contribution to the EU, receive no return investment, lose our vote and influence, and only suffer a milder recession than the treasury forecast. Brilliant

[Macca]

You don't think we could negotiate on our own terms, given that, unlike Norway, the UK is a £300 billion export market for the EU countries?

I suspect that we could.

[Oldpinkman]

You don't think we could negotiate on our own terms, given that, unlike Norway, the UK is a £300 billion export market for the EU countries?

I suspect that we could.

You suspect we could. I suspect this guy knows more than either of us

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06...rendum-debate/

We could negotiate - trade deals - eventually (10 years?). They won't be membership of the single market - so much more than a trade deal.

It's 24 minutes long, quite entertaining and well presented in my view, but if you want the short answer skip to 18 minutes in

[doodoos]

You suspect we could. I suspect this guy knows more than either of us

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06...rendum-debate/

We could negotiate - trade deals - eventually (10 years?). They won't be membership of the single market - so much more than a trade deal.

It's 24 minutes long, quite entertaining and well presented in my view, but if you want the short answer skip to 18 minutes in

How about devoting your energies to sorting out France which is in a much bigger mess than the UK.