View Full Version : My audio prediction #1 for 2009
Neil McCauley
31-12-2008, 14:03
I should state at the outset that no, I don’t have any inside knowledge whatsoever to support my prediction. So … please don’t jump to any conclusions re what follows here.
My prediction is that during 2009 one of the current established UK based audio magazines will disappear, by being purchased or merged with one of its rivals.
My justification for this is as follows. First, advertising incoming revenue is plummeting because advertising budgets are being slashed. Moreover when advertisers get together informally and discuss which publications produce results, some of us find that one magazine outperforms another (although this is inconsistent) but the common denominator is that none of them are producing the results (quantity of worthwhile sales leads) that warrant the high advertising costs.
Secondly, one of the principle assets of any magazine in any industry is its subscriber base. My guess is that one of the UK audio mags will take over another – predominantly to get their hands on that asset and at a stroke pretty much double its subscription base.
Is any of this a good thing? Frankly I’ve no idea. From my personal perspective as a retailer, I doubt if it will make any difference to me. Potential customers find me via the internet, and that’s that – pretty much.
From the perspective of the ‘civilian’ though, perhaps it might. Maybe if my prediction comes to pass, the remaining publications will seek to engage with their readership more by finding out what readers want in the way of editorial style, coverage, culture and so on – rather than guessing.
sastusbulbas
31-12-2008, 14:41
You may be right, though 09 may be the start,
I still think that if a magazine was to go back to the old ways they may just find more customer support and buyers?
I was reading some late 80's magazines as I am prone to doing at times, and it is quite refreshing to see product being described as what it is, no spin or berms around contentious performance.
Magazines could very easily go back to the honesty route, with their remit being justifiable sound quality versus cost, they could even do internet and hard copy versions, with the internet version allowing the customer to purchase only the articles they want.
PS as an example of how magazine mentality and advertising revenue affect a Forum and reviewers opinion, study the mentality and way Hi Fi Critic's forum is going, god it's boring, I sometimes think the replies are automated. A clear indication of the teh direction you are talking of?
Spectral Morn
31-12-2008, 15:40
Hi Howard
I too have no inside knowledge, but if I had to guess( and I am ),I would say Hi-Fi News. Paul Miller has done his best to pull the title from the toilet it had fallen into and nearly vanished down a few years ago. But, and I have said this before, this Mag is a very pale imitation of what it was back in the 80's. And whats with the constant invasion of Av products (I don't have anything against AV, but there are plenty of Mags (some failing too) to pick from that do it better. Do we who are into 2 channel audio want to share editorial space with DVD players and the like. I don't. If I want info on that topic I buy a Mag that does that fully. I know Paul Miller is into Av but if he wants to offer that subject he should go to an AV mag and leave HI-FI NEWS ,to ,and its in the title HI-FI, not AV NEWS.
Call me sad but I have a massive collection of audio mags and all the existing titles ,are much poorer than they were in the mid to late 80's. Like the previous poster I too from time to time read some of these old Mags (which is the reason for keeping them), and I am constantly, shocked, angered, disappointed with what modern audio virgins have to read. Very little meat on the bones of any of the printed mags IMHO, compared to how it was.
There are degrees of exception, but none of the Mags are as good as I would like to see. More editorial and less of the glossy advertising pictures, how many views of a product do you need to see ?
Regards D S D L ----- Neil :(
pure sound
31-12-2008, 15:56
there was a period a year or two back where people were speculating that HiFi News might cease to be. I was talking to Roy Gregory about it expecting that he'd be pleased. Far from it. He pointed out that there are a limited number of spaces on the magazine shelves in Smiths & the like. If a HiFi Magazine were to go, it wouldn't be replaced by another HiFi mag but a gaming or car tweaking mag. As he rightly said, that would be a shame & the hobby or pursuit that we all like would be diminished further by its absence.
Spectral Morn
31-12-2008, 16:32
Hi Guy
I agree, this would be indeed a terrible tragedy,but it is one of their own making, or to be more precise who ever gave Steve Fairclough the Job of editor. Boy did he stuff it up( Hi-fi News was not perfect before ) but it was IMHO a hell of a lot worse after he took over. Steve Harris, should never have been given the push ( and he was ). Then Ken Kessler left. Even after Mr Fairclough vanished, he had left the UK's premier title holed and sinking. Andrew Harrison tried ( and was not given a real chance)and then Paul Miller got the job and AV became the regular pain it is to this day( it was a bit before, but was given the push by Steve Harris ) I don't want HI-Fi News to go, and I hope I am wrong (but it is the weakest title IMO ).
It was this Mag that both challenged and informed me when I got into audio in the late 80's. I would be much the poorer without its past educational input, but it used to take a week for me to work my way through it. Now 30 mins is all it takes. No meat, no serious editorial, loads of padding in the way of multiple pictures. Its nearly a Comic. Sadly this is nearly true of other Mags too. I want plenty to read and learn from.
And a near skeleton compared to what it was.
Very Sad D S D L ----- Neil:(
Dave Cawley
31-12-2008, 16:56
This coming year will be the survival of the fittest. In retail and everywhere. Like a forest fire, the economy will rise: smaller, stronger and fitter.
BTW in my view it was Paul Miller who ruined News for me.
Dave
Spectral Morn
31-12-2008, 17:04
Mr Miller is not perfect either(he has his flaws, his mad love affair with AV for one ) but he is much better than Steve Fairclough IMHO.
Regards D S D L ---- Neil :)
Mr Miller is not perfect either(he has his flaws, his mad love affair with AV for one ) but he is much better than Steve Fairclough IMHO.
Regards D S D L ---- Neil :)
I believe Steve F edited a camera mag for the same group before be got his hands on HFN. He admitted knowing nothing about Hi-Fi when I spoke with him. It showed in his results with the mag.
Hi all,
Could I just take a moment to remind everyone on of this please:
http://theartofsound.net/forum/showthread.php?t=1674
As far as I'm concerned there's been NO transgression at all so far, as everyone has only expressed opinions without dishing out any insults at all.
Please, please, please can we keep it that way? :)
Thanks in advance.
Cheers all, and have a great New Year's Eve! :champagne:
pure sound
31-12-2008, 18:11
Paul is a nice enough chap, clever, honest & well meaning. Unfortunately he doesn't really have a love of or interest in listening to music.
Neil McCauley
31-12-2008, 18:22
I was talking to Roy Gregory about it expecting that he'd be pleased. Far from it. He pointed out that there are a limited number of spaces on the magazine shelves in Smiths & the like. If a HiFi Magazine were to go, it wouldn't be replaced by another HiFi mag but a gaming or car tweaking mag. As he rightly said, that would be a shame & the hobby or pursuit that we all like would be diminished further by its absence.
I agree with him re this.
Neil McCauley
31-12-2008, 18:27
I believe Steve F edited a camera mag for the same group before be got his hands on HFN. He admitted knowing nothing about Hi-Fi when I spoke with him. It showed in his results with the mag.
Apparently it was stamp collecting, not cameras.
He took the view in an email to me that his lack of knowledge meant that he carried no industry 'baggage', no alliances, no inherited obligations and was above all, untainted. He came to realise I suspect that that it also meant he came with no credibility either.
Beechwoods
31-12-2008, 18:31
Cheers all, and have a great New Year's Eve! :champagne:
Only 11 posts to go til the big 2k. Is tonight going to be the big one Mike?
http://img3.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/sign/sign0014.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-mad-smileys.php)
Or
http://img3.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/sign/sign0090.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/free-war-smileys.php)
Go for it, dude ;)
Eh? :scratch:
Oh right!.... I see what you mean now! :)
Neil McCauley
31-12-2008, 18:43
While it’s true that the public face of a publication – in any industry – is in the main created and maintained by the Editor, it’s worth bearing in mind that sometime the editor’s ‘strings’ are pulled by an autocratic semi paranoid publisher with pretensions of grandeur and an over-inflated sense of their own importance. This may or may not be true in this industry of course. It certainly is in other though.
However …….
Although this thread has, as would have been predicted, swung towards finger-pointing and a drift towards naming and shaming, I’d like to suggest that this is perhaps counterproductive? I very much doubt if there is an editor alive – in any publishing arena – that can arrest the decline of the printed word.
This is I believe simply because of speed. The review backlog on paper based magazines is months. Whereas an ambitious maker can get a review published on one of the quality online audiophile newsletters in weeks, if not days.
Online is immediate and print is retroactive. That's a fact.
Then there’s the cultural issue in that people increasingly resent having to pay for information that can be, and is, free online. I'm not talking about forum-based conjecture masquerading as fact by people with hidden interests squatting behind their pseudonyms. I'm talking about authoritative, in-depth and credible reviewing from experienced reviewers who know what they are talking about online at 6moons, TNT audio and so on.
I cannot envisage how any magazine, not just audio can – in the long run – compete with quality information delivered online when you want it and for free.
To point the finger at editorial personalities, however uncharismatic and feeble they may be, is to be missing the point it seems to me.
John Bamford is now being groomed to take over from Paul Miller, this should help a fair bit.
Though I do agree one of the top mags will fall by the wayside, though my money is not on hifi news!
While we are Howards thoughs on which retailers and dealers will also fall by the wayside?
Although this thread has, as would have been predicted, swung towards finger-pointing and a drift towards naming and shaming, I’d like to suggest that this is perhaps counterproductive? I very much doubt if there is an editor alive – in any publishing arena – that can arrest the decline of the printed word.
Thank you so much, Howard. That is precisely what I was hinting at. :youtheman:
I'd be most happy to put my moderators hat in the cupboard this evening. :)
pure sound
31-12-2008, 18:55
John Bamford is now being groomed to take over from Paul Miller, this should help a fair bit.
Though I do agree one of the top mags will fall by the wayside, though my money is not on hifi news!
While we are Howards thoughs on which retailers and dealers will also fall by the wayside?
John Bamford doesn't need grooming. He's done the job (& very well too) before!
Paul is a nice enough chap, clever, honest & well meaning. Unfortunately he doesn't really have a love of or interest in listening to music.
Neither do many people posting on some hi-fi forums! ;)
IMO, almost all the magazines are a pale imitation of their former selves. The worst offender though is undoubtedly Hi-fi News; it was worth buying in the days when it was called 'Hi-fi News & Record Review', when it had a fabulous music section and in-depth, accurate, assessments of equipment by knowledgeable reviewers. That old chap with the beard always had an interesting section too, I forget his name. It's all 'froth' now though and no substance.
I really liked Hi-fi Choice when it was in its little 'booklet' format (who remembers that?) but these days it's too full of computer audio tat and the 'latest and greatest' toys to hold my interest. There's not enough on classic gear and valves for me. Hi-fi Plush is good for looking at beautiful glossy pictures of (mainly) badge snob hi-fi for the lazy who buy with their wallets, and reading how achingly wonderful Roy Gregory thinks the latest grossly overpriced Nordost [insert product name here] is...
In my opinion, the only magazine that has improved (and quite considerably) in recent times is Hi-fi World. For me, it has its finger on the pulse as far as what real enthusiasts want - affordable gear, old and new, which offers high sound-per-pound value and reviews and articles relating to such. It's the only magazine which champions the Technics 1210 and modifications to it (a perfect example of the kind of gear I'm referring to), tackles valves and classic gear properly, covers computer audio but keeps it in its appropriate context, and has a decent readers' letters and D.I.Y section - all in all lots to interest experienced people like myself who like to think 'outside the box' with hi-fi and refuse to be part of 'the herd'.
Long may it continue to flourish!
Marco.
Neil McCauley
31-12-2008, 20:01
While we are Howards thoughs on which retailers and dealers will also fall by the wayside?
I feel uncomfortable about making predictions re retailing. However I’ll give you this observation, which has caused me to pause for thought.
In my part of North London is a Sevenoaks outlet. It’s run buy what I feel is a thoroughly decent chap. His store is neat, tidy, un-intimidating and rather welcoming. Moreover the man there is knowledgeable and helpful. He knows who I am, and I buy from him. usually pieces that I purchase at full RRP and sell to my customers at no margin simply because to get the best sound in their budget it makes sense for me to do this for them as it’s usually just one component in an otherwise full Stereonow system.
I like going there. It’s rarely busy. I wish it were busier for him.
Two days before Christmas this year a branch of Richer Sounds opened around 300 yards away. No local publicity that I could see, yet from day one it was packed. And people were buying. The staff as is usual at Richer Sounds are keen, young and helpful. Not necessarily knowledgeable, but they try.
On every rational and objective level, the end result one might obtain from Sevenoaks is superior to that a Richer. But Richer are packed and Sevenoaks are not.
I'm puzzled. I have no clear understanding. No explanation. There is a factor or are factors at work here that I have no understanding of. I'm sure it means something – but I don’t know what. I feel uncomfortable for that decent chap at Sevenoaks and his sincere efforts to offer something decent in every respect.
Howard, there's no 'mystery' about it - it's simply because the masses buy first and foremost on price these days, where all the '5-star' What-Hi-fi?-reviewed products are in stock ready to take away. Richer Sounds are well-known (serious) hi-fi discounters; their name is synonymous with 'bargains', whereas Sevenoaks doesn't qualify in any of those respects.
Marco.
Dave Cawley
31-12-2008, 20:25
I think they might both go. In my personal opinion Richer is really pising off manufactures/importers by their incessant discounting. (I can provide evidence).
Dave
In my personal opinion Richer is really pising off manufactures/importers by their incessant discounting. (I can provide evidence).
I don't doubt it, Dave, but their heavy discounting is why people are flocking to their doors!
Unfortunately the masses will always buy hi-fi on price, and not on service and experience, and a whole host of other factors, like me and others like me.
Marco.
Beechwoods
31-12-2008, 20:38
Howard, there's no 'mystery' about it - it's simply because the masses buy first and foremost on price these days, where all the '5-star' What-Hi-fi?-reviewed products are in stock ready to take away. Richer Sounds are well-known (serious) hi-fi discounters; their name is synonymous with 'bargains', whereas Sevenoaks doesn't qualify in any of those respects.
That's true, as I saw it before I got into vintage stuff at any rate. The thing is for me, I know I can't stretch to even the lower scale of the 'high-end' price-range (anything over £300 for me for a single item is a lot of money) and I was always nervous of going into somewhere like Sevenoaks (we have one in Bristol, almost opposite Richer Sounds funnily enough) because I knew there was very little there that would fall within my price range.
Now these days I'm prepared to be patient and save for what I really really want, but price is still a barrier for me, and I'm not so sure that Joe P on the street is prepared to do what I do to aspire higher. Most of the people I know with an interest in music are happy to have something that has a good set of reviews behind it - eventhough they may be a year or so old, or end of line - or are those who, as Marco put it, 'buy with their wallet' (I know what you mean) where they have a notional high price in mind, and buy to that. The serious audiophile market is niche. This will always limit the chances of High Street retailers aiming at that market. And it's very sad because there are some very knowledgeable people out there who are going to suffer (and are sufffering) as a consequence, not just because of that indifference but because of the economic downturn and that indifference...
God I'm cheerful tonight!
sastusbulbas
31-12-2008, 20:58
I feel uncomfortable about making predictions re retailing. However I’ll give you this observation, which has caused me to pause for thought.
In my part of North London is a Sevenoaks outlet. It’s run buy what I feel is a thoroughly decent chap. His store is neat, tidy, un-intimidating and rather welcoming. Moreover the man there is knowledgeable and helpful. He knows who I am, and I buy from him. usually pieces that I purchase at full RRP and sell to my customers at no margin simply because to get the best sound in their budget it makes sense for me to do this for them as it’s usually just one component in an otherwise full Stereonow system.
I like going there. It’s rarely busy. I wish it were busier for him.
Two days before Christmas this year a branch of Richer Sounds opened around 300 yards away. No local publicity that I could see, yet from day one it was packed. And people were buying. The staff as is usual at Richer Sounds are keen, young and helpful. Not necessarily knowledgeable, but they try.
On every rational and objective level, the end result one might obtain from Sevenoaks is superior to that a Richer. But Richer are packed and Sevenoaks are not.
I'm puzzled. I have no clear understanding. No explanation. There is a factor or are factors at work here that I have no understanding of. I'm sure it means something – but I don’t know what. I feel uncomfortable for that decent chap at Sevenoaks and his sincere efforts to offer something decent in every respect.
Hmm, I do not think it is that difficult, Richer Sounds are doing what many on-line retailers are doing, selling the same stuff cheaper! Selling reasonable kit at reasonable prices without hype! IE making an effort to get stuff selling.
The guy at Sevenoaks has no control over his employers business model.
Going back to the magazines, it's true that HFN is a shadow of its former self. I used to devour the old yellow bordered issues which had superb technical articles and proper record reviews. Now the editorials are shallow and the only interesting reviews are from the old guard like Ken Kessler. It does have merit, however, primarily the superb photography which puts it up there with Car magazine for presentation.
For a model of what I like in a magazine, I point to Stereophile. It's not perfect, and has a tendency towards AV and meteorically priced components, but it features constantly good editorial content, well researched and written reviews and more than an evening's read.
If I could combine the integrity of Hi-Fi Critic with the gloss and presentation of HFN then that would be fun. As it is, I rather think that Howard's prediction is accurate and would go further to say that more than one title may fail this coming year.
Guy,
I know John has done the job well before (and will do so again), he's just being brought up to speed on the way HFN does its business currently LOL
Dave,
As for discounting, its not just Richer sounds that are at it LOL quite a few of the 'old skool' so called 'big gun' dealers have been at for a while. (even before the current squeeze).
It will eventually be self destructive for those that participate imho
As for those that will go the way of Woolworth's, I feel at least one very well known UK name will fall by the wayside, possible two as well as around 4-6 old established dealers ( a couple of which would be a shame as these are some of the genuinely good ones).
It is adapt and flow with the market, or find something else of merit to engage in employment wise.
2009 will be incredibly interesting year, for those who had the foresight it will be another year of growth and move into new markets, for others they will just survive to fight another year.
For the near enough is good enough brigade(unfortunately there are still a few of these around), it will be the last.
I also feel the buying public will benefit, as it will pare down the number of dealers into those the buying public are happy and at ease with, this will enable them to have better quality of service, choice and overal level of professionalism will rise.
The bottom line is here, only the good guys will be left after the dust has settled. IMHO
Tony
kreacherx
01-01-2009, 13:13
:)Many of my friends were very biased by hifi magazines in the past i watched as they bought flavour of the month x flavour of the month without once feeling the sound, saying ".... listen to the sibilance .........or concentrate on the hi freq etc"!!!
or placing great laminated bricks in the magnetic field etc?
I listened to a young friend expound on the scientific purity of digital & in-ear phones, they were the best because they operated directly on the eardrums?
My sad prediction is just that, hifi will be scientific & have no correlation to feelings & magazines will be scientific text books!! Cynicism mebbe but that's my "Feeling":eyebrows:
David
For a model of what I like in a magazine, I point to Stereophile. It's not perfect, and has a tendency towards AV and meteorically priced components, but it features constantly good editorial content, well researched and written reviews and more than an evening's read.
I like the way the John Atkinson tries to correlate measurements with his listening impressions, no-one else seems to be prepared to do this
I think they might both go. In my personal opinion Richer is really pising off manufactures/importers by their incessant discounting. (I can provide evidence).
Dave
Would you go back to the times when it was legal for manufacturers to demand fixed prices from the retailer ?
Dave Cawley
01-01-2009, 15:01
Would you go back to the times when it was legal for manufacturers to demand fixed prices from the retailer ?
Of course not! Some good dealers will not stock anything that Richer sells and some manufactures are not happy about this. Richer will also try to "bait and switch" (I can provide evidence). I know there are some customers only motivated by price, but I'm not sure Hi fi is like that? or is it?
Regards
Dave
My tuppence worth..
One of the problems with "specialist" dealers (I was one for more years than I care to remember), is the "attitude" - and this is what often puts "non-we" people off. Richer staff always seem helpful and enthusiastic and the best of these will almost certainly wish to find out more I reckon...
"Bait and switch" has been used for years when there's a limited stock of "goodies" and the old chains did this all the time.
The difference with Sevenoaks compared to, say, Audio T, a competitor of sorts, is that customers would go into Audio T and say, "I have £2,000 to spend, what do you recommend?" In Sevenoaks, they tended to go in and say, "I've got a list of recommended 5 Star products and want this, this, this and this, with QED Silver Anniversary to the speakers!" The fact that little of the gear matched and the speaker cable is awful in most "toppy" systems totally went over these people. The staff just supplied the boxes and took the money in many of the branches. There are exceptions and the branch Howard refers to is excellent, if I have the right one - the franchise owner was a "good guy" when I knew him and he owned another branch well into central London.
As for the mags, WTF has been the biggest for years, HFN has contracted steadily and the circulation was dire even fifteen years ago. Gramophone usually outsells most of the audio mags added together I understand, yet the lack of bad reviews often gave it a bad reputation - they refused to publish reviews on sub-standard gear they'd tested. I find HiFi World very entertaining, but my greater knowledge of selling and setting up what is now vintage gear often makes me want to contribute something - ah well, I do this for nowt online so there we are....;)
Dave Cawley
01-01-2009, 15:56
Audio T, a competitor of sorts, is that customers would go into Audio T and say, "I have £2,000 to spend, what do you recommend?" In Sevenoaks, they tended to go in and say, "I've got a list of recommended 5 Star products and want this, this, this and this, with QED Silver Anniversary to the speakers!
Very perceptive, and so true!
Dave
sastusbulbas
01-01-2009, 16:08
What Hi Fi has a lot of impact on places such as Richer Sounds, they love adding those little recommended badges to the product pictures.
DSJR has a very valid point, the number of chaps that go into Richer/7oaks with a what hifi under their arms, and are TOTALLY influenced by the review.
A friend of mine works for one of the above empouriums, I was talking to him in the shop one Saturday afternoon, chap was deciding on which equipment to audition.
The assistant who was polite, and fair with his recomendations, was greeted with, 'Nah mate didn't get 5 stars', and the kit he was offering as a genuine alternative was dismissed totally out of hand.
The equipment he was offering as counter point was (imho) better build quality and sound, yet also a good 20% less than the mag review he was citing. Price (on this occasion did not seem to be an issue)
A listen would have told him the bare facts lol!
Genuine music lovers know what they like (or what they don't like!!).
The serial box swappers, end up putting a sticking plaster on the system, rather than looking at the fundimental core issue that is causing them to change kit ever 3-4 months!. Then so the cycle continues, they are exceptions, so guys just change kit for the pure love of it, however they are few and far between!
UK hifi market, more intense than the JAG owners club LOL
I know it's early in the year, but hey spot on, Tony! :eyebrows:
Genuine music lovers know what they like (or what they don't like!!). The serial box swappers, end up putting a sticking plaster on the system, rather than looking at the fundimental core issue that is causing them to change kit ever 3-4 months!. Then so the cycle continues...
I see this happening on other forums all the time, particularly (and no disrespect to the folks there) on Wigwam. There's a really competitive edge amongst people there with regard to kit, as if they have to own the current 'latest and greatest must-have' thing at all costs in order to be part of 'the club', and this creates some serious 'serial' box swappers (Jerry, jandl100, is of course exempt ;)). Thankfully, AOS members seem to be relatively free from this particular disease (or at least open-minded enough to listen to knowledgeable advice that might take them off of that dead-end road).
I blame the Ebay 'bargain-hunting' culture for much of the problem!
Marco.
CornishPasty
01-01-2009, 23:12
I used to buy HFNRR on a regular basis.Then it became just HFN and I became worried. I finally gave it up because of the ever expanding AV content. I read hifi, not AV. Does anyone remember when they first started putting the AV booklet inside? I told my lad it wouldn't be long before it became part of it and surely it did. I knew it had gone down the pan at that point. It's my belief that the management team wanted AV included so it could cash in on the advertising of said products.
On the subject of Richer Sounds, they sell a lot of end of line stuff as well don't they. After all someone has to get rid of it.
I used to buy HFNRR on a regular basis.Then it became just HFN and I became worried. I finally gave it up because of the ever expanding AV content. I read hifi, not AV. Does anyone remember when they first started putting the AV booklet inside? I told my lad it wouldn't be long before it became part of it and surely it did. I knew it had gone down the pan at that point. It's my belief that the management team wanted AV included so it could cash in on the advertising of said products.
Good point and seems likely, given also Paul Miller's apparent penchant for AV. And talking of AV, the current issue (which by chance I picked up) is unfortunately full the bollocks!
Marco.
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